ANALISIS KELAYAKAN BISNIS PROYEK PENGOLAHAN SAMPAH MENJADI ENERGI LISTRIK REGIONAL YOGYAKARTA

Abstract

Proyek Pengolahan Sampah Menjadi Energi Listrik (PSEL) Regional Yogyakarta memerlukan kepastian pasokan sampah, kesiapan operasional, dan arus kas yang memadai. Penelitian ini menganalisis kelayakan bisnis dari aspek kelembagaan, operasional, dan finansial serta merumuskan model bisnis berkelanjutan. Penelitian menggunakan studi kasus berbasis data sekunder melalui telaah dokumen, pemetaan aliran sampah dan pemodelan arus kas terdiskonto. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa pembagian peran telah memiliki dasar formal, tetapi komitmen volume dan mekanisme penyalurannya belum terikat secara operasional. Timbulan acuan Kartamantul mencapai 1.308 ton/hari, sedangkan konsolidasi historis sekitar 741 ton/hari. Pada skenario dasar 1.000 ton/hari, nilai kini bersih (NPV) sebesar -Rp1,382 triliun, tingkat pengembalian internal proyek sebesar 0,73%, dan rasio cakupan pelayanan utang minimum sebesar 0,478 kali. Seluruh skenario volume belum layak tanpa tambahan pendapatan. Pada 1.000 ton/hari, diperlukan insentif indikatif Rp740.824/ton agar NPV mencapai nol. Kelayakan proyek memerlukan model terintegrasi yang mengikat pasokan, pendapatan, pembiayaan, dan alokasi risiko.

The Regional Yogyakarta Waste-to-Energy project requires reliable waste supply, operational readiness, and adequate cash flow. This study assesses its institutional, operational, and financial feasibility and formulates a sustainable business model. A secondary-data case study was conducted using document review, waste-flow mapping, and discounted cash flow. The findings show that formal responsibilities have been established, but volume commitments and delivery mechanisms remain operationally unsecured. Kartamantul’s reference waste generation reaches 1,308 tonnes/day, while historical regional consolidation was approximately 741 tonnes/day. Under the base case of 1,000 tonnes/day, the project records a net present value (NPV) of -IDR 1.382 trillion, a project internal rate of return of 0.73%, and a minimum debt service coverage ratio of 0.478 times. All volume scenarios remain unfeasible without additional revenue. At 1,000 tonnes/day, an indicative incentive of IDR 740,824/tonne is required to achieve zero NPV. Project feasibility requires an integrated model linking supply, revenue, financing, and contractual risk allocation.