Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Tarif Resiprokal Amerika Serikat terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia

Abstract

Tarif resiprokal Amerika Serikat terhadap Indonesia turun dari 32% pada April 2025 menjadi 19% melalui perjanjian dagang bilateral pada Februari 2026, dengan target negosiasi lanjutan 15%. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak tarif 32%, 19%, dan 15% terhadap perekonomian Indonesia menggunakan model keseimbangan umum (CGE) berbasis GTAP versi 11 tahun referensi 2017, dilengkapi simulasi kontinu pada 10%, 7%, 6%, dan 5% untuk mengidentifikasi rentang titik balik kesejahteraan. Seluruh simulasi menghasilkan kerugian kesejahteraan (EV) dan kontraksi PDB riil, sementara peningkatan surplus neraca perdagangan mencerminkan tertekannya volume impor akibat melemahnya perekonomian domestik, bukan penguatan ekspor. Sektor tekstil dan pakaian jadi mengalami kontraksi terdalam namun pulih pada tarif 15%, sedangkan minyak sawit mentah tumbuh melalui pengalihan pasar ekspor. Penurunan tarif dari 19% ke 15% mereduksi kerugian sekitar seperempatnya, meski kerugian residual tetap ada. Rentang titik balik EV teridentifikasi antara tarif 7% dan 6%, menjadi acuan indikatif bagi negosiasi jangka menengah, disertai rekomendasi diversifikasi pasar ekspor dan penguatan struktural manufaktur ringan.

The United States reciprocal tariff on Indonesia fell from 32% in April 2025 to 19% under a bilateral trade agreement signed in February 2026, with a further negotiation target of 15%. This study analyzes the impact of the 32%, 19%, and 15% tariff scenarios on the Indonesian economy using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the GTAP database version 11 with a 2017 reference year, supplemented by continuous simulations at 10%, 7%, 6%, and 5% to identify the welfare turning-point range. All scenarios generate a welfare loss (EV) and a contraction in real GDP, while the apparent improvement in the trade balance surplus reflects import compression driven by a weakening domestic economy rather than stronger exports. The textile and apparel sector experiences the deepest contraction yet recovers at the 15% tariff, whereas crude palm oil expands through export market diversion. Lowering the tariff from 19% to 15%reduces the welfare loss by roughly a quarter, although a residual loss remains. The turning-point range for EV is identified between the 7% and 6% tariff levels, offering an indicative reference for medium-term negotiations, along with recommendations for export market diversification and structural strengthening of light manufacturing.