Pengaruh Google Trends dan Indikator Makroekonomi-Pasar Keuangan terhadap Perkembangan Reksa Dana di Indonesia

Abstract

Digitalisasi investasi mendorong peningkatan jumlah investor reksa dana di Indonesia, namun peningkatan tersebut tidak selalu diikuti perkembangan Nilai Aktiva Bersih (NAB). Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Google Trends sebagai proksi perhatian digital, inflasi bulanan, IHSG, dan yield SBN 10 tahun terhadap perkembangan NAB reksa dana di Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder bulanan periode April 2021–April 2026 sebanyak 61 observasi dengan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang antarvariabel. Dalam jangka panjang, Google Trends berpengaruh positif signifikan dan yield SBN 10 tahun berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap NAB, sedangkan inflasi bulanan dan IHSG tidak signifikan. Dalam jangka pendek, IHSG berpengaruh positif signifikan, sedangkan Google Trends satu periode sebelumnya berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Koefisien Error Correction Term (ECT) sebesar -0,0605 menunjukkan penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang sebesar 6,05% per bulan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perhatian digital dapat menjadi indikator pelengkap dalam pemantauan pasar reksa dana.

The digitalization of investment has increased the number of mutual fund investors in Indonesia, although this growth has not always been accompanied by higher Net Asset Value (NAV). This study analyzes the effects of Google Trends as a proxy for digital attention, monthly inflation, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), and the ten-year government bond yield on the development of mutual fund NAV in Indonesia. Monthly secondary data from April 2021 to April 2026 (61 observations) were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results confirm a long-run relationship among the variables. In the long run, Google Trends has a significant positive effect and the ten-year government bond yield has a significant negative effect on NAV, while monthly inflation and the JCI are insignificant. In the short run, the JCI has a significant positive effect, whereas lagged Google Trends has a significant negative effect. The Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient of -0.0605 indicates an adjustment speed of 6.05% per month toward long-run equilibrium. The findings suggest that digital attention can complement conventional indicators in monitoring the mutual fund market.