Penilaian Nilai Wajar Saham Sektor Energi Baru dan Terbarukan dengan Metode Discounted Cash Flow dan Relative Valuation

Abstract

Pertumbuhan investor dan dominasi investor muda di pasar modal Indonesia sering kali disertai kerentanan terhadap bias kognitif. Tingginya antusiasme terhadap narasi transisi energi membuat sektor Energi Baru Terbarukan menjadi daya tarik investasi. Namun, antusiasme tersebut berpotensi menyebabkan harga tidak mencerminkan nilai fundamentalnya. Penelitian ini mengestimasi nilai intrinsik saham sektor EBT di Bursa Efek Indonesia menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow dan Relative Valuation berbasis PER dan PBV. Hasil menunjukkan PGEO dan KEEN secara konsisten undervalued di seluruh skenario, didukung stabilitas arus kas dan basis ekuitas yang kuat. Sebaliknya, BREN dan ARKO secara konsisten overvalued di seluruh skenario, mengindikasikan harga pasar lebih mencerminkan ekspektasi spekulatif daripada kemampuan fundamental. Temuan ini menunjukkan PGEO dan KEEN layak untuk strategi value investing, sementara BREN dan ARKO memerlukan evaluasi ulang posisi portofolio.

The growth of investors and the dominance of young investors in the Indonesian capital market are often accompanied by susceptibility to cognitive biases. High enthusiasm for the energy transition narrative makes the New and Renewable Energy sector an attractive investment. However, this enthusiasm has the potential to cause prices to not reflect their fundamental value. This study estimates the intrinsic value of stocks in the Renewable Energy sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange using Discounted Cash Flow and Relative Valuation methods based on PER and PBV. The results show that PGEO and KEEN are consistently undervalued across all scenarios, supported by stable cash flows and a strong equity base. Conversely, BREN and ARKO are consistently overvalued across all scenarios, indicating that market prices reflect speculative expectations rather than fundamental strengths. These findings suggest that PGEO and KEEN are suitable for a value investing strategy, while BREN and ARKO require a re-evaluation of their portfolio positions.