Peramalan Permintaan Ruang Rawat Inap sebagai Acuan dalam Penentuan Kapasitas di RSUP Dr Mohammad Hoesin Palembang

Abstract

Forecasting is the one important way to determine the success of planning ,especially in terms of capacity planning. Research objectives are (1) to review and analyze the pattern of demand for inpatient wards at Dr Mohammad Hoesin Palembang, (2) to determine the most suitable method for forecasting wards at Dr Mohammad Hoesin Palembang, (3) to obtain the forecast number of inpatient at RSUP Dr Mohammad Hoesin Palembang up to 2015. The method used is the method of time series. Processing and analysis of data used in the study will be described quantitatively and qualitatively. Quantitative data were processed using Microsoft Excel and Minitab 15. Qualitative analysis is done through direct observation and interview process. Identified a pattern of data requests inpatient unit is stationary, constant over the period January 2009 to September 2013. Forecasting time series method used was autoregressive, ARMA, ARIMA, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, where the results of the calculations showed that sales forecasting for RSUP Dr Mohammad Hoesin Palembang that best matches the accuracy of the indicator value is the smallest MAPE error autoregressive method (2 ).