Model pegendalian persediaan kemasan gallon dengan mempertimbangkan tingkat pengembalian dan permintaan produk di perum perhutani unit III Jawa Barat dan Banten

Abstract

Gallon is a critical factor in the planning and production control of drinking water companies. The number of gallons that return to the factory will affect the number of products manufactured and shipped to consumers in the next period. Gallons are returned to the factory may compromise of quality, quantity and time. Inventory control and production planning gallons of drinking water must be done properly in order to service levels are met demand. This research was conducted with the purpose of making a model that is able to integrate between the rate of return gallons and level of product demand. The research was carried out with planning approach that starts from field observations until verification of model. Modeling is developed from three main models,secondly, returns of gallon to simulation data actual with its time series method model and the last is gallons inventory estimation model. The selected forecasting method is naif method and simulations carried out in accordance gallon rate of return distribution that has been identified, Cauchy Distribution. Based on the gallons of inventory estimation model, the company will have a shortage of about 1093 gallons and necessary addition. In addition, Models capable of estimating the number of gallons of return. Models can also find out the number of gallons for the lack of production in those periods. So that procurement can be determined number of gallons that will be ordered.