Kajian Peralaman dan Perencanaan Agregat Produk Tahu di Pabrik Tahu Adzkiya, Kabupaten Indramayu.

Abstract

Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) memiliki peran penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia, namun sering menghadapi tantangan efisiensi operasional. Studi ini menganalisis sistem peramalan dan perencanaan agregat di Pabrik Tahu Adzkiya, produsen tahu berskala kecil yang berlokasi di Indramayu. Saat ini perusahaan mengalami ketidaksesuaian antara produksi dan permintaan pasar. Analisis dilakukan terhadap data penjualan tahun 2022–2024 menggunakan tiga metode peramalan yaitu weighted moving average, trend projection, dan exponential smoothing. Strategi perencanaan agregat dianalisis menggunakan metode chase, level, mixed. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan selisih produksi dan penjualan mencapai 633.000 unit. Metode peramalan yang digunakan untuk sebagian besar produk berdasarkan tingkat kesalahan terkecil adalah trend projection, kecuali tahu goreng pedas diproyeksikan dengan metode exponential smoothing. Strategi mixed terbukti paling efisien, menghasilkan biaya terendah dan potensi penghematan hingga Rp969 juta per tahun.

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) played a crucial role in the Indonesian economy, but they often faced challenges in operational efficiency. This study analyzed the forecasting and aggregate planning system at Adzkiya SME, a tofu producer in Indramayu, which experienced a mismatch between its production and market demand. The analysis was conducted on sales data from 2022–2024 using three forecasting methods (weighted moving average, trend projection, and exponential smoothing) and three aggregate planning strategies (chase, level, and mixed). The results showed that the difference between production and sales reached 633,000 units. Trend projection was identified as the best forecasting method for most products, while exponential smoothing was superior for spicy fried tofu. The mixed strategy proved to be the most efficient, resulting in the lowest costs and potential savings of up to IDR 969 million per year.