Analisis Penilaian Harga Saham untuk Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Subsektor Perbankan)

Abstract

Pasar modal mempunyai karakteristik High Risk High Return. Minat investasi masyarakat di Indonesia terus meningkat setiap tahunnya khususnya minat investasi terhadap pasar modal, minat masyarakat dalam berinvestasi meningkat hingga 92,99% pada tahun 2021. Investor dalam berinvestasi seringkali menunjukkan perilaku yang bersifat irasional dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi. Ketika melakukan investasi terkadang investor overconfidence dan berperilaku herding dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi. Dalam meminimalisir risiko kerugian diperlukan analisis penilaian saham dengan analisis fundamental dan analisis teknikal untuk mengetahui nilai saham. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis nilai intrinsik saham pada perusahaan subsektor perbankan dengan menggunakan metode Price Earning Ratio (PER), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), dan Price to Book Value (PBV), serta menganalisis tingkat keakuratan dengan analisis Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data kuantitatif. Data sekunder didapatkan dari laporan keuangan Bursa Efek Indonesia. Teknik pengambilan sampel yaitu purposive sampling. Hasil penelitian berdasarkan pendekatan PER, DDM dan PBV investor disarankan untuk membeli sebelas saham undervalued yaitu, BBCA, BBNI, BBRI, BDMN, BJBR, BJTM, BMRI, BNBA, BNII, MEGA, dan SDRA pada tahun 2021. Berdasarkan analisis RMSE metode Price Earning Ratio (PER) dan Dividend Discount Model (DDM) merupakan metode penilaian harga saham yang lebih akurat.

The capital market has the characteristics of High Risk High Return. Public investment interest in Indonesia continues to increase every year, especially investment interest in the capital market, public interest in investing increases to 92.99% in 2021. Investors in investing often show irrational behavior in making investment decisions. When making investments, investors are sometimes overconfident and behave herding in making investment decisions. In minimizing the risk of loss, stock valuation analysis is needed with fundamental analysis and technical analysis to determine the stock value. This study aims to analyze the intrinsic value of shares in the banking sub-sector companies using the Price Earning Ratio (PER), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), and Price to Book Value (PBV) methods, and analyze the level of accuracy with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) analysis. The type of data used is quantitative data. Secondary data is obtained from the financial statements of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sampling technique is purposive sampling. The results of the study based on the PER, DDM and PBV approaches investors are advised to buy eleven undervalued stocks, namely, BBCA, BBNI, BBRI, BDMN, BJBR, BJTM, BMRI, BNBA, BNII, MEGA, and SDRA in 2021. Based on RMSE analysis of the Price Earning method Ratio (PER) and Dividend Discount Model (DDM) are more accurate stock price valuation methods.