|Enterprises Colossoma macropomum hatcheries (BAT) is a very risky business. One manufacturer BAT successful to date is Fishery H. Ijam (UPHI). The purpose of this study was to analyze the source of hatchery production risk BAT analyze how the probability and impact of risks seed production in BAT activity, and analyze alternative strategies that can be done to address the risks of production that occurs in UPHI. Six factors are the source of production risk is an error in the selection of the parent, the parent fault injection, cannibalism, the dry season, water temperature changes are extreme seed can lead to death, and disease. Based on the analysis of the probability of using the z-score is the source of production risk mistakes in the selection of the parent has a value of 12.1 percent probability risk, stem injection errors by 39.7 percent, 10.6 percent cannibalism, weather factors during the dry season by 29 , 8 percent, changes in water temperature of 37.8 percent, and 39.4 percent of the disease. Meanwhile, based on the analysis of the impact of risk using Value at Risk (VaR) shows that the errors stem injection of Rp 28,802,201, dry summer weather factors of Rp 25,448,054, parent selection error Rp 13,858,178, Rp 6,676,490 disease , changes in water temperature of Rp 6,366,539 and Rp 3,891,437 cannibalism. An alternative strategy that uses a strategy of preventive risk is a source of risk in quadrants 1 and 2 changes in temperature, disease, stem injection error and weather factors during the dry season. The use of mitigation strategies used for sources of risk in quadrants 2 and 4, namely injecting stem errors, weather factors, and errors in the selection of sires. As for the sources of risk that exist in quadrant 3 cannibalism using preventive strategies.