Model Struktural dan Strategi Peningkatan Kualitas Keputusan Investasi Generasi Z dalam Merespons Popularitas Saham

Abstract

Pertumbuhan platform investasi digital memperluas akses Generasi Z terhadap pasar modal Indonesia, namun belum diimbangi literasi keuangan yang memadai, sehingga keputusan investasi rentan dipengaruhi popularitas saham, yaitu kecenderungan memilih saham karena sedang ramai diperbincangkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor penentu keputusan investasi saham, menguji pengaruh popularitas saham secara langsung dan melalui mediasi serial emotional biases dan herd behavior, menguji moderasi literasi keuangan, serta menyusun prioritas strategi peningkatan kualitas keputusan investasi. Penelitian menggunakan desain bertahap empat tahap: tinjauan pustaka sistematis terhadap 97 artikel terindeks Scopus; meta-analisis terhadap 20 studi empiris (76 effect size; 25.244 partisipan kumulatif) menggunakan transformasi Fisher’s Z dan model random-effects tiga-level dengan galat baku cluster-robust; pemodelan persamaan struktural kuadrat terkecil parsial (SEM-PLS) terhadap 217 responden Generasi Z di Indonesia; serta Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Tinjauan pustaka mengelompokkan faktor keputusan investasi ke dalam enam dimensi dan menunjukkan popularitas saham belum diposisikan sebagai variabel eksogen individu. Meta-analisis menunjukkan korelasi gabungan positif (r = 0,340; I² = 95,1%). Regret aversion menjadi bias afektif dengan pengaruh paling konsisten dan homogen (r = 0,437; I² = 0,0%), sedangkan overconfidence menjadi prediktor kognitif terkuat (r = 0,380). Herding (r = 0,180) dan financial literacy (r = 0,203) positif namun sangat heterogen dan tidak signifikan pada level bivariat, mendukung posisinya sebagai mediator dan moderator kontekstual dalam model. Model struktural mengonfirmasi popularitas saham berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keputusan investasi Generasi Z, baik secara langsung (ß = 0,277) maupun melalui mediasi serial (ß = 0,080), dengan pengaruh total 0,357 dan keragaman terjelaskan 46,4%. Jalur dari emotional biases menuju herd behavior merupakan koefisien terbesar dalam model (ß = 0,466). Literasi keuangan memperlemah pengaruh popularitas saham (ß = -0,209) hingga 86,2% pada investor berliterasi tinggi, tetapi tidak memoderasi pengaruh herd behavior (ß = -0,073; p = 0,242), sehingga bersifat preventif dan bukan korektif. Penilaian pakar menempatkan penguatan literasi keuangan sebagai kriteria berbobot tertinggi (0,367). Pada tataran strategi, keterbukaan dan penyajian informasi memperoleh prioritas tertinggi (0,291), disusul edukasi dan pelatihan (0,274) serta pengaturan dan pengawasan (0,264), sedangkan pengingat dan jeda pengambilan keputusan menempati posisi terendah (0,172). Berhimpitnya bobot ketiga strategi teratas menunjukkan rekomendasi berupa paket intervensi terpadu, bukan strategi tunggal, yang bersifat preventif melalui kolaborasi regulator, penyedia platform investasi, dan institusi edukasi keuangan.

The rapid growth of digital investment platforms has expanded Generation Z’s access to Indonesia’s capital market, but this has not been matched by adequate financial literacy, making investment decisions vulnerable to stock popularity, or the tendency to choose stocks that are widely discussed. This study aims to identify the determinants of stock investment decisions, examine the direct effect of stock popularity and its serial mediation through emotional biases and herd behavior, test the moderating role of financial literacy, and develop strategic priorities to improve investment decision quality. A four-stage design was applied: a systematic literature review of 97 Scopus-indexed articles; a meta-analysis of 20 empirical studies (76 effect sizes; 25,244 cumulative participants) using Fisher’s Z transformation and a three-level random-effects model with cluster-robust standard errors; partial least squares structural equation modeling (SEM-PLS) on 217 Generation Z respondents; and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) assessed by four experts. The review grouped the determinants into six dimensions behavioral biases, financial literacy and knowledge, psychological and personal traits, external and contextual factors, demographic variables, and values and religiosity and showed that stock popularity had not been positioned as an individual-level exogenous variable. The meta-analysis produced a positive, moderate pooled correlation (omnibus r = 0.340; I² = 95.1%). Regret aversion was the most consistent and fully homogeneous affective bias (r = 0.437; I² = 0.0%), while overconfidence was the strongest cognitive predictor (r = 0.380). Herding (r = 0.180) and financial literacy (r = 0.203) were positive but highly heterogeneous and not significant at the bivariate level, supporting their role as contextual mediator and moderator in the model. The structural model confirmed that stock popularity positively and significantly affected Generation Z investment decisions, both directly (ß = 0.277) and through serial mediation (ß = 0.080), with a total effect of 0.357 and 46.4% of variance explained. The path from emotional biases to herd behavior was the largest coefficient in the model (ß = 0.466). Financial literacy weakened the effect of stock popularity (ß = -0.209) by up to 86.2% among highly literate investors, but did not moderate herd behavior (ß = -0.073; p = 0.242), acting preventively rather than correctively. Expert judgment ranked strengthening financial literacy as the highest- weighted criterion (0.367), while among strategies information disclosure and presentation received the highest priority (0.291), followed by education and training (0.274) and regulation and supervision (0.264), and reminders and decision pauses (0.172). The near-equal weights of the top three strategies indicate an integrated, preventive intervention package requiring collaboration among regulators, digital investment platforms, and financial education institutions.