Determinan dan Elastisitas Permintaan Bawang Merah di Indonesia

Abstract

Bawang merah adalah komoditas hortikultura strategis yang berperan penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia, memengaruhi konsumsi rumah tangga hingga industri pangan. Sensitivitas harganya sering memicu inflasi pangan yang bergejolak, sementara permintaan tetap stabil dan cenderung meningkat, mencerminkan dinamika pasar yang kompleks. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor penentu permintaan bawang merah serta menganalisis elastisitasnya dalam jangka pendek dan panjang. Data yang digunakan berupa time series bulanan tahun 2017 hingga 2025 yang mencakup harga bawang merah, bawang putih, cabai merah keriting, PDB, variabel dummy Idul Fitri serta Natal dan Tahun Baru. Analisis dilakukan secara deskriptif dan kuantitatif dengan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) serta bound test. Hasil uji kointegrasi tidak menemukan hubungan jangka panjang, sehingga model hanya menangkap efek jangka pendek. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan harga cabai merah keriting dan PDB per kapita berpengaruh signifikan terhadap permintaan bawang merah, sedangkan variabel lain tidak berpengaruh. Permintaan bawang merah sangat inelastis, memiliki hubungan komplementer dengan cabai merah, dan responsif terhadap perubahan pendapatan dalam jangka pendek.

Shallots are a strategic horticultural commodity that plays an important role in the Indonesian economy, affecting household consumption to the food industry. Its price sensitivity often triggers volatile food inflation, while demand remains stable and tends to increase, reflecting complex market dynamics. This study aims to identify the determinants of demand for shallots and analyze their elasticity in the short and long term. The data used is in the form of a monthly time series from 2017 to 2025 which includes the prices of shallots, garlic, curly red chilies, GDP, dummy variables for Eid al-Fitr and Christmas and New Year. The analysis was carried out descriptively and quantitatively using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and bound test. The results of the cointegration test found no long-term relationship, so the model only captured short-term effects. The results showed that the price of curly red chili peppers and GDP per capita had a significant effect on the demand for shallots, while other variables had no effect. The demand for shallots is highly inelastic, has a complementary relationship with red peppers, and is responsive to short-term changes in income.