Pengaruh Risiko Global terhadap Stabilitas Keuangan Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia

Abstract

Eskalasi risiko global yang ditandai oleh lonjakan ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi Amerika Serikat, meningkatnya risiko geopolitik akibat konflik Rusia-Ukraina, perang di kawasan Timur Tengah, dan volatilitas harga minyak dunia berpotensi mengancam stabilitas keuangan perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh risiko global yang diproksikan melalui Economic Policy Uncertainty Amerika Serikat (EPUUS) dan Geopolitical Risk (GPR) terhadap stabilitas keuangan Bank Umum Syariah yang diukur menggunakan indeks Z-Score. Penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan periode Januari 2020 hingga November 2025 yang dianalisis menggunakan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan variabel kontrol meliputi harga minyak dunia, IPI, Inflasi, BI Rate, FDR, BOPO, dan ukuran perusahaan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa EPU US berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap stabilitas BUS, mengindikasikan bahwa BUS rentan terhadap transmisi ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi AS melalui mekanisme contagion dan spillover effect. Sementara itu, GPR tidak berpengaruh signifikan yang mencerminkan resiliensi struktural BUS terhadap guncangan geopolitik global.

The escalation of global risks, marked by surging uncertainty in United States economic policy, heightened geopolitical risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, wars in the Middle East region, and world oil price volatility, potentially threatens the financial stability of Islamic banking in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the influence of global risks proxied by the United States Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPUUS) and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) on the financial stability of Islamic Commercial Banks (BUS) measured using the Z-Score index. This study used monthly data from January 2020 to November 2025, which were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with control variables including world oil prices, IPI, inflation, BI Rate, FDR, BOPO, and firm size. The results showed that EPUUS had a negative and significant effect on BUS stability, indicating that BUS was vulnerable to the transmission of US economic policy uncertainty through contagion and spillover effect mechanisms. Meanwhile, GPR had no significant effect, reflecting the structural resilience of BUS against geopolitical global shocks.