Dampak Ketidakpastian Ekonomi Global dan Indikator Makroekonomi Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah Periode2015-2025

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi global (GEPU) dan indikator makroekonomi domestik (inflasi, BI Rate, pertumbuhan PDB, dan indeks produksi industri) terhadap profitabilitas bank umum syariah di Indonesia periode 2015–2025, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang, menggunakan data time series triwulanan dan model ARDL. Variabel kontrol (NPF, FDR, CAR, dan BOPO) serta hubungan kointegrasi jangka panjang turut diuji. Hasil menunjukkan GEPU berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap ROA dalam jangka pendek dan positif signifikan dalam jangka panjang. BI Rate berpengaruh negatif jangka pendek tetapi tidak signifikan dalam jangka panjang. PDB berpengaruh positif signifikan jangka pendek, tetapi tidak signifikan pada jangka panjang. IPI tidak berpengaruh di kedua periode waktu. Variabel kontrol berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah periode waktu yang berbeda. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bank syariah memiliki kapasitas adaptif terhadap guncangan ketidakpastian global melalui mekanisme risk-sharing, faktor internal bank menjadi determinan yang lebih dominan dalam menjaga profitabilitas jangka panjang.

This study analyzes the impact of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and domestic macroeconomic indicators (inflation, the BI Rate, GDP growth, and the industrial production index) on the profitability of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia during the 2015–2025 period, both in the short and long term, using quarterly time-series data and the ARDL model. Control variables (NPF, FDR, CAR, and BOPO) as well as long-run cointegration relationships were also tested. The results show that GEPU has a significant negative effect on ROA in the short run and a significant positive effect in the long run. The BI Rate has a negative effect in the short run but is not significant in the long run. GDP has a significant positive effect in the short run but is not significant in the long run. The IPI has no effect in either time period. The control have significant effects with different directions across the time periods. These findings indicate that Islamic banks possess the adaptive capacity to cope with global uncertainty shocks through risk-sharing mechanisms, while internal bank factors are the more dominant determinants in maintaining long-term profitability