Determinan Ekspor Kayu Manis Bubuk Indonesia ke Negara Tujuan Utama

Abstract

Indonesia merupakan salah satu produsen dan eksportir utama kayu manis dunia, namun kinerja ekspor kayu manis bubuknya ke negara tujuan utama berfluktuasi dan cenderung menurun. Kondisi ini menunjukkan ekspor tidak hanya dipengaruhi produksi, tetapi juga berbagai faktor ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis determinan volume ekspor kayu manis bubuk Indonesia ke sepuluh negara tujuan utama, menggunakan data panel sekunder periode 2015-2024 yang menggabungkan data time series dan cross section. Variabel dependen adalah volume ekspor, sedangkan variabel independen meliputi PDB per kapita negara tujuan, PDB per kapita Indonesia, nilai tukar, jarak ekonomi, tarif, dan Covid-19. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dengan pendekatan Common Effect Model dan robust standard error (HAC). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan nilai tukar dan tarif berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, sedangkan jarak ekonomi berpengaruh positif signifikan. Sebaliknya, PDB per kapita negara tujuan, PDB per kapita Indonesia, dan Covid-19 tidak berpengaruh signifikan.

Indonesia is one of the world's leading cinnamon producers and exporters. However, its ground cinnamon export performance to major destination countries has fluctuated and generally declined, indicating that exports are influenced not only by production but also by various economic factors. This study analyzes the determinants of Indonesia's ground cinnamon export volume to its ten major destination countries, using secondary panel data for 2015-2024 combining timeseries and cross-sectional data. The dependent variable was export volume, while the independent variables included destination country GDP per capita, Indonesia's GDP per capita, exchange rate, economic distance, tariffs, and the COVID-19 dummy. Panel data regression using the Common Effect Model with robust standard errors (HAC) was applied. Results show exchange rate and tariffs have a significant negative effect on export volume, while economic distance has a significant positive effect. In contrast, destination country GDP per capita, Indonesia's GDP per capita, and the COVID-19 dummy show no significant effect.