Pengaruh Risiko Harga Terhadap Penawaran Paprika Kelompok Tani Dewa Family Kabupaten Bandung Barat

Abstract

Paprika merupakan komoditas hortikultura bernilai ekonomi tinggi, namun harganya cenderung berfluktuasi karena perubahan jumlah penawaran, kualitas produk, sifat produk yang mudah rusak, serta perubahan permintaan pasar. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis tingkat risiko harga paprika serta mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi penawaran paprika. Penelitian dilakukan di Kelompok Tani Dewa Family Kabupaten Bandung Barat. Data primer diperoleh melalui observasi dan wawancara, sedangkan data sekunder diperoleh dari publikasi pendukung. Risiko harga dianalisis menggunakan model ARCH-GARCH dan Value at Risk (VaR), sedangkan perilaku penawaran dianalisis menggunakan regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model terbaik untuk paprika hijau, merah, dan kuning adalah ARCH(1)-GARCH(1). Hasil VaR menunjukkan paprika hijau memiliki risiko harga tertinggi dibandingkan warna paprika lain. Faktor yang memengaruhi penawaran berbeda antarwarna paprika, namun variabel ekspektasi harga, variasi harga, ekspektasi produksi, dan harga paprika warna lain menjadi faktor yang paling relevan.

Bell pepper is a high value horticultural commodity, but its price tends to fluctuate because supply, quality, perishability, and market demand change over time. The objectives of this study were to measure the level of price risk bell peppers and to identify factors affecting their supply. The research was conducted at Dewa Family Farmer Group in West Bandung Regency. Primary data were obtained through observation and interviews with the production manager, warehouse manager, marketing manager, and farmer group leader, while secondary data were obtained from the group management records and supporting publications. Price risk was estimated using ARCH-GARCH models and Value at Risk (VaR), whereas supply behavior was analyzed using multiple linear regression. The results show that best models were ARCH(1)-GARCH(1) for green, red, and yellow bell peppers. VaR results indicate green bell pepper had the highest price risk. Supply determinants differed by color, but expected price, price variation, expected production, and prices of other bell pepper colors were the most relevant variables.