TRANSMISI HARGA DAGING SAPI DARI PASAR INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP PASAR DOMESTIK INDONESIA PADA BERBAGAI TINGKAT PASAR

Abstract

Daging sapi merupakan komoditas pangan strategis yang menghadapi defisit pasokan domestik dan ketergantungan impor yang tinggi, sehingga harga domestik rentan terhadap perubahan harga global dan fluktuasi nilai tukar. Berbagai guncangan eksternal, seperti pandemi COVID-19, konflik geopolitik, dan wabah Penyakit Mulut dan Kuku (PMK), turut memengaruhi stabilitas rantai pasok daging sapi. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan kointegrasi dan asimetri transmisi harga daging sapi dari pasar internasional ke pasar domestik tingkat produsen, grosir, eceran modern, dan eceran tradisional di Indonesia. Data harga time series bulanan periode 2019–2025 dianalisis menggunakan model Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya kesenjangan volatilitas yang besar antara harga daging sapi dunia (14,96%) dan harga domestik (<1%), yang mengindikasikan transmisi harga tidak sempurna. Keempat jalur transmisi terkointegrasi dalam jangka panjang, namun menunjukkan segmented market integration. Pola transmisi harga bersifat heterogen dan asimetris antar tingkat pasar. Pada tingkat produsen, harga dunia tidak ditransmisikan secara signifikan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Pada tingkat grosir, hanya penurunan harga dunia yang ditransmisikan secara signifikan, terutama dalam jangka pendek. Pada pasar modern, hanya kenaikan harga dunia yang ditransmisikan dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan pada pasar tradisional hanya penurunan harga dunia yang ditransmisikan secara terbatas. Besaran transmisi harga global relatif kecil dan melemah sepanjang rantai distribusi. Penurunan harga dunia sebesar 1% ditransmisikan sebesar 0,24% ke grosir dan 0,15% ke eceran tradisional, sedangkan kenaikan harga dunia sebesar 1% hanya ditransmisikan sebesar 0,098% ke pasar modern. Kecepatan penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang berbeda antar tingkat pasar, yaitu 15,4 bulan pada produsen, 5,6 bulan pada grosir, 2,1 bulan pada pasar tradisional, dan 1,6 bulan pada pasar modern. Asimetri transmisi terkonfirmasi pada jalur grosir dalam jangka pendek dan pasar modern dalam jangka panjang. Temuan ini menunjukkan perlunya peningkatan efisiensi distribusi, transparansi informasi pasar, dan penguatan integrasi pasar daging sapi di Indonesia.

Beef is a strategic food commodity in Indonesia that faces a domestic supply deficit and high import dependency, making domestic prices vulnerable to changes in global prices and exchange rate fluctuations. Various external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks, have also affected the stability of the beef supply chain. This study aims to analyze the cointegration relationship and asymmetric price transmission of beef prices from the international market to domestic markets at the producer, wholesale, modern retail, and traditional retail levels in Indonesia. Monthly time-series data from 2019–2025 were analyzed using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The results reveal a substantial volatility gap between global beef prices (14.96%) and domestic prices (<1%), indicating imperfect price transmission. All transmission channels are cointegrated in the long run but exhibit segmented market integration. Price transmission patterns are heterogeneous and asymmetric across market levels. At the producer level, global prices are not transmitted significantly in either the short or long run. At the wholesale level, only decreases in global prices are transmitted significantly, particularly in the short run. In the modern retail market, only increases in global prices are transmitted in the long run, whereas in the traditional retail market, only decreases in global prices are transmitted to a limited extent. The magnitude of global price transmission is relatively small and weakens along the distribution chain. A 1% decrease in global prices is transmitted by 0.24% at the wholesale level and 0.15% at the traditional retail level, while a 1% increase in global prices is transmitted by only 0.098% at the modern retail level. The speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium varies across market levels, requiring 15.4 months at the producer level, 5.6 months at the wholesale level, 2.1 months at the traditional retail level, and 1.6 months at the modern retail level. Asymmetric transmission is confirmed in the wholesale channel in the short run and in the modern retail channel in the long run. These findings highlight the need to improve distribution efficiency, market information transparency, and market integration in Indonesia's beef sector.