Daya Saing dan Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Ekspor Cengkeh Indonesia di Negara Tujuan Utama

Abstract

FANDY FERNANDY. Daya Saing dan Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Ekspor Cengkeh Indonesia di Negara Tujuan Utama. Dibimbing oleh DWI RACHMINA.

Pertumbuhan komoditas cengkeh turut mendorong kinerja ekspor tanaman perkebunan. Cengkeh merupakan salah satu rempah utama Indonesia dengan produksi terbesar serta permintaan pasar internasional yang tinggi. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dengan periode 2014-2023, dengan variabel PDB riil per kapita negara tujuan, harga ekspor, nilai tukar riil efektif, jarak, dan kebijakan Non-Tariff Measure (TBT dan SPS). Metode analisis meliputi Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), X-Model, dan regresi data panel. Hasil RCA menunjukkan daya saing cengkeh Indonesia kuat di tujuh negara tujuan. Analisis EPD menunjukkan cengkeh Indonesia dengan kategori posisi pasar rising star di negara Uni Emirat Arab, India, Pakistan dan Amerika Serikat. Hasil X-Model menunjukkan pemetaan potensi pengembangan pasar ekspor cengkeh Indonesia pasar optimis di Uni Emirat Arab, India, Pakistan dan Amerika Serikat, serta pasar potensial di Saudi Arabia dan Vietnam. Secara signifikan variabel PDB riil per kapita negara tujuan, harga ekspor, jarak dan dummy kebijakan Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) memengaruhi volume ekspor cengkeh.

FANDY FERNANDY. Competitiveness and the Determinant Factors Affecting Indonesia’s Clove Exports to Major Destination Countries. Supervised by DWI RACHMINA.

The growth of the clove commodity has contributed to the performance of plantation crop exports. Cloves are one of Indonesia’s main spices, with the largest production volume and high international market demand. This study uses secondary data from the 2014–2023 period, with variables including the real GDP per capita of destination countries, export prices, real exchange rate, distance, and Non-Tariff Measures (TBT and SPS). The analytical methods employed include Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), the X Model, and panel data regression. The RCA results indicate that Indonesian cloves have strong competitiveness in seven destination countries. The EPD analysis shows that Indonesian cloves hold a 'rising star' market position in the United Arab Emirates, India, Pakistan, and the United States. The X-Model results reveal that the Indonesian clove export market has optimistic prospects in the United Arab Emirates, India, Pakistan, and the United States, as well as potential markets in Saudi Arabia and Vietnam. The variables of real GDP per capita of destination countries, export prices, distance, and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) policy dummy significantly influence the volume of clove exports.