Pola Perdagangan Intra Industri Sektor Pertanian Indonesia dengan China dan Jepang serta Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhinya

Abstract

Ketidakpastian ekonomi global mendorong sejumlah negara melakukan pengembangan kerja sama perdagangan. China dan Jepang sebagai mitra dagang utama Indonesia telah berkontribusi besar bagi perdagangan luar negeri Indonesia. Secara perkembangan, Indonesia telah sampai tahap Free Trade Agreement dengan China dan Economic Partnership Agreement dengan Jepang. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis kinerja dagang berdasarkan derajat integrasinya dan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi perdagangan komoditas pertanian Indonesia ke China dan Jepang. Metode analisis dalam penelitian yaitu Intra Industry Trade dan regresi data panel dengan variabel berupa PDB, PDB per kapita, Nilai tukar riil, dan Real Effect Exchange Rate. Hasil menunjukkan rata-rata IIT dengan China sebesar 28% dan Jepang sebesar 29% artinya hubungan Indonesia dengan China dan Jepang berada pada tingkat integrasi sedang. Dalam pengelompokan HS 2 digit, arus kedua negara banyak terjadi pada komoditas HS 12, HS 13, dan HS 23. Berdasarkan hasil regresi data panel diperoleh bahwa seluruh variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai IIT.

The global economic uncertainty encouraged a number of countries to develop trade collaboration. China and Japan as Indonesia's main trading partners have contributed significantly to Indonesia's foreign trade. Indonesia has reached Free Trade Agreement stage with China and Economic Partnership Agreement stage with Japan. The purpose of this study is to analyze trade performance based on the degree of integration and analyze the determinants of Indonesia's trade in agricultural commodities to China and Japan. The analytical method in this study is Intra Industry Trade analysis and panel data regression with variables namely GDP, GDP per capita, Exchange Rate, and Real Effect Exchange Rate. The results showed the average IIT score with China was 28% and Japan was 29%, which means that Indonesia's were at moderate level of integration with China and Japan. In the 2-digit HS, intra-industry trade flows in the two countries mostly occur in HS 12, HS 13, and HS 23 commodities. Based on the results of the panel data regression, it is found that all variables has a significant effect on the value of IIT.