Analisis Peramalan dan Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Harga Bawang Merah di Indonesia
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Onion is one of horticultural commodity from food crops subsector which is important for Indonesian. That commodity is often used in household consumption as a seasoning, complementary food ingredients, and a cure for some diseases. Nowadays, demand for onion increase with the increases of population and the developing of food industry. However, onion price was often fluctuating. This study aim to (1) analyze the developing of onion prices in Indonesia and trends in the future; (2) analyze the factors that affect onion price in Indonesia. This study uses data of onion price in Indonesia from June 2009 - May 2014, total of onion supply in Indonesia, total of onion consumption in Indonesia, and international onion price in 1993-2013. ARIMA model is used to predict onion price in the future and multiple linear regression model with estimation method of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) is used to estimate factors that affect the price of onion. The results of this study showed a trend of rising prices with fluctuating pattern in June 2009 – Mei 2014 and in June 2014 - May 2015 predicted that price will fluctuate and tend to increase. The factors that affect onion real price in Indonesia are delta of onion supply in Indonesia, lag of onion consumption in Indonesia, delta of international onion real price and lag of onion real price in Indonesia.