Dampak fluktuasi harga pangan hewani asal ternak terhadap inflasi di kabupaten Bogor

Abstract

Inflasi di Kabupaten Bogor berfluktuatif. Kelompok yang berkontribusi besar yaitu kelompok bahan makanan, salah satunya pangan hewani asal ternak. Oleh karena itu, harga pangan hewani asal ternak menjadi isu penting di Kabupaten Bogor. Penelitian ini menganalisis harga komoditas pangan hewani asal ternak, yaitu daging ayam broiler (karkas), daging sapi has, daging sapi bistik, daging sapi murni, hati sapi, daging kambing/domba, telur ayam ras, telur ayam buras, telur itik, dan susu segar. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series bulanan periode Januari 2010 hingga Desember 2013. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah: 1) Menjelaskan perkembangan harga komoditas pangan hewani asal ternak di Kabupaten Bogor menggunakan analisis deskriptif; 2) Menganalisis dampak fluktuasi harga komoditas pangan hewani asal ternak terhadap inflasi di Kabupaten Bogor menggunakan model VAR (Vector Autoregression). Hasil dari analisis deskriptif menunjukkan bahwa selama 2010-2013, perkembangan harga komoditas daging ayam broiler (karkas), daging sapi has, daging sapi bistik, daging sapi murni, hati sapi, daging kambing/domba, dan telur ayam ras cenderung meningkat, sedangkan komoditas telur ayam buras, telur itik dan susu segar cenderung stabil. Hasil analisis VAR menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka panjang, fluktuasi harga berdampak terhadap inflasi terutama pada komoditas daging sapi murni dan telur ayam ras, diikuti oleh telur ayam buras, daging ayam broiler (karkas), daging sapi has, susu segar, telur itik, dan daging kambing/domba. Adapun komoditas daging sapi bistik dan hati sapi tidak berdampak secara signifikan terhadap inflasi.

Bogor District has a fluctuative inflation. The highest inflation is contributed by food category, especially food from livestock. Therefore, the price of the food from livestock became an important issue in Bogor District. This research analyze the prices of food from livestock, such as broiler meat (carcass), filet beef, beefsteak, beef, beef livers, mutton, layer egg, native chicken egg, duck egg, and fresh milk. The data used are monthly time series data from January 2010 to December 2013. The purpose of this research are: 1) to describe the development of food from livestock price in Bogor District using descriptive analysis, 2) to analyze the effects of food from livestock price fluctuations on inflation in Bogor District using VAR (Vector Autoregression) model. The result of descriptive analysis shows that in 2010-2013 the prices of broiler meat (carcass), filet beef, beefsteak, beef, beef livers, goat meat, and layer egg have an upward trend, while native chicken egg, duck egg, and fresh milk have a stable trend. The result of VAR (Vector Autoregression) analysis shows that in the long term, price fluctuation effected on inflation of Bogor District, especially beef and layer egg, followed by native chicken egg, broiler meat (carcass), filet beef, fresh milk, duck egg, and mutton. The beefsteak and beef livers are not significantly effect on inflation.