Analisis Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Pertumbuhan Produksi Sektor Industri dan Perekonomian Indonesia

Abstract

The increase in world oil prices is a very serious obstacle to economic growth sectors, particularly the industrial sector that uses oil as a production input. The increase in oil prices is also closely related to the condition of the national economy. The purpose of this study are to analyze the effect of fluctuation in world oil prices on industrial production growth and the economy of Indonesia. The research was done in the period 2003 to 2012 using the VAR (Vector Autoreggresive Model) as a tool of analysis, and use five variables; oil prices, industrial production growth, industrial share to GDP, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the real exchange rate. The results showed that long-term fluctuation in world oil prices has a positive effect on the growth of Indonesia's industrial production, because the industrial sector has been able to adjust itself if there is an increase in oil prices in the long term, while in the short-term has negative effect. Besides that, fluctuation in the price of oil is also known to influence the Indonesian GDP positively in the long run.