Rancang bangun model manajemen risiko pada investasi agroindustri lada

Abstract

The spectrum of investment instruments will provide different degree of uncertainty. This is influenced by the level of risk faced. Analysis of investment performance then need an analysis that integrates the aspects of return and risk within a framework of analysis. The competitiveness of pepper industry, which can be expressed in the achievement of quality, market share, profitability and sustainability, is still low. Pepper agroindustrial is integrated with farming systems and conducted on a small scale and traditional approach. The decisions on mechanical pepper agroindustrial and its investment on value chain are very limited. It has typically been driven by practical factors such as risk. The objective of this paper is to propose a comprehensive method in risk analysis, risk management design, and risk based financial analysis as a model of decision support systems. The methods of this research are Fuzzy Logic, FMEA, Vulnerability Analysis which expressed in Radar Chart, Analytical Hierarchy Process, and Cash Flow Analysis. On the other hand, fuzzy weighting approach on expert and risk compenent is one method that can improve risk assessment. This study provides an analysis tool that integrates financial and risk analysis in a framework, risk management models, and support facility analysis, which is integrated in Decision Support System called SMART INVEST. It consists of data based management system, model based management system, integrated analysis, and user interface. The model provides integrated risk analysis for pepper commodity system agent, description of financial analysis for investor, and a guideline for government and other stakeholders in the process of providing instrument for risk management. Further analysis of the risk in the form of vulnerability analysis, will provide the basis for determining the support type for the risk management. Application of the model in Bangka showed that the total value of risk was in the high class. Based on risk group, the biggest risk faced by investment on the pepper agroindustrial was the marketing and followed by agriculture, agroindustry, institutional, and financial. The analysis showed that the biggest risks were the price, competition, steam rot disease, cooperation, and dependence between actors. The project generates a surplus of benefits over cost in 202,8 billion IDR. It would be found in this case that the IRR was 45,28%. The benefi cost ratio was 1,95, and the payback period was 3,75 years. If there is no risk management, the risk is expected to effect on the pepper processing services (28,89%), the amount of processed pepper (31,03%), and yield (10,70%). Changes in its variables will consequence in large changes in NPV, IRR, BC ratio, and Pay Back Period. It is therefore necessary to develop risk management system which completed by support facilities.