Dinamika dan Determinan Underemployment Kota/Kabupaten di Pulau Jawa: Pendekatan CAGR dan CLD

Abstract

Underemployment atau setengah pengangguran merupakan penduduk yang bekerja kurang dari 35 jam per minggu dan masih mencari atau bersedia menerima pekerjaan lain. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dinamika dan determinan underemployment di 119 kabupaten/kota Pulau Jawa tahun 2017–2025. Dinamika dianalisis menggunakan analisis deskriptif, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), serta uji korelasi Pearson dan Spearman, sedangkan determinan dikaji melalui Systematic Literature Review (SLR) terhadap 32 artikel dan dipetakan menggunakan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa 74 kabupaten/kota (62,2%) mengalami peningkatan underemployment dengan rata-rata CAGR 1,72 persen per tahun. Uji korelasi Pearson (r = -0,051; p = 0,580) dan Spearman (? = 0,056; p = 0,547) menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah tidak berhubungan secara signifikan dengan pertumbuhan underemployment, sejalan dengan growth-employment paradox. SLR mengidentifikasi empat reinforcing loop, dua balancing loop, dan tujuh variabel eksogen sebagai determinan underemployment. Temuan ini menunjukkan perlunya kebijakan ketenagakerjaan yang disesuaikan dengan karakteristik wilayah melalui penguatan belanja pemerintah serta pelatihan dan peningkatan keterampilan.

Underemployment refers to employed persons who work less than 35 hours per week and are still seeking or willing to accept another job. This study aims to analyze the dynamics and determinants of underemployment in 119 regencies/municipalities in Java Island during 2017–2025. The dynamics were analyzed using descriptive analysis, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), and with Pearson and Spearman correlation tests, while determinants were examined through a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) of 32 articles and mapped using a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). The results show that 74 regencies/municipalities (62,2%) experienced an increase in underemployment, with an average CAGR of 1.72 percent per year. Pearson (r = -0,051; p = 0,580) and Spearman (? = 0,056; p = 0,547) correlation tests indicate that regional economic growth was not significantly associated with underemployment growth, consistent with the growth-employment paradox. The SLR identified four reinforcing loops, two balancing loops, and seven exogenous variables as determinants of underemployment. These findings highlight the need for region-specific employment policies through strengthened government expenditure, training, and skill development.