| dc.description.abstract | This study reconstructs an SEIRS mathematical model incorporating seasonality and awareness campaigns to analyze malaria dynamics in Indonesia by determining equilibrium points, mosquito regulatory threshold (R), basic reproduction number (R_0), and local stability. Parameter estimation using Least Squares on WHO incidence of malaria per 1000 population at risk in Indonesia 2000–2024 yielded R_0=1.4629 and R=10.8620, indicating both malaria and its vectors persist. Sensitivity analysis and 4th-5th order Runge-Kutta simulations confirm that increasing adult mosquito mortality (?) and decreasing mosquito-to-human transmission (ß_2) which fluctuates seasonally, effectively reduce R_0. Furthermore, global (?) and local (d) awareness campaigns accelerate human transition to the aware group, drastically suppressing the infective mosquito population. In conclusion, vector control, reducing human-mosquito contact, and optimizing awareness campaigns are the most effective strategies to mitigate malaria in Indonesia. | |
