Dinamika Penularan Penyakit Malaria: Model SEIRS dengan Pengaruh Musim dan Kampanye Kesadaran

Abstract

This study reconstructs an SEIRS mathematical model incorporating seasonality and awareness campaigns to analyze malaria dynamics in Indonesia by determining equilibrium points, mosquito regulatory threshold (R), basic reproduction number (R_0), and local stability. Parameter estimation using Least Squares on WHO incidence of malaria per 1000 population at risk in Indonesia 2000–2024 yielded R_0=1.4629 and R=10.8620, indicating both malaria and its vectors persist. Sensitivity analysis and 4th-5th order Runge-Kutta simulations confirm that increasing adult mosquito mortality (?) and decreasing mosquito-to-human transmission (ß_2) which fluctuates seasonally, effectively reduce R_0. Furthermore, global (?) and local (d) awareness campaigns accelerate human transition to the aware group, drastically suppressing the infective mosquito population. In conclusion, vector control, reducing human-mosquito contact, and optimizing awareness campaigns are the most effective strategies to mitigate malaria in Indonesia.