Pengaruh Kelekatan Ayah-Anak, Stres Finansial, Paparan Media Sosial dan Religiusitas terhadap Ketakutan Menikah

Abstract

Fenomena penurunan angka pernikahan kontemporer di Indonesia yang menyentuh angka terendah dalam satu dekade terakhir mencerminkan adanya pergeseran sikap sosial yang masif di kalangan dewasa muda perkotaan. Ketakutan terhadap komitmen pernikahan (gamophobia) menjebak generasi muda dalam fase waithood atau penundaan perkawinan yang berkepanjangan, yang jika dibiarkan berpotensi memicu resesi pernikahan serta penurunan angka fertilitas (Total Fertility Rate) nasional di bawah batas aman pergantian populasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis gambaran karakteristik, hubungan bivariat, serta pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung dari faktor mikrosistem masa lalu (kelekatan ayah-anak) dan tekanan eksosistem-makrosistem kontemporer (stres finansial dan paparan media sosial) terhadap ketakutan menikah, dengan menempatkan nilai teologis (religiusitas) sebagai variabel mediator, serta mengeksplorasi dinamika psikososial tersebut secara mendalam. Penelitian ini menerapkan pendekatan metode campuran (mixed-method) dengan desain sekuensial eksplanatori (Explanatory Sequential Design). Pada tahap kuantitatif, survei daring dilakukan terhadap 300 dewasa muda belum menikah berusia 21–35 tahun yang berdomisili di wilayah urban Provinsi Jawa Barat dan DKI Jakarta, yang ditarik menggunakan teknik purposive sampling. Data kuantitatif dianalisis menggunakan Structural Equation Modeling - Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) berbantuan perangkat lunak SmartPLS 4.0. Pada tahap kualitatif, wawancara mendalam dilakukan kepada 5 orang informan terpilih yang memiliki skor ekstrem kuantitatif untuk mengeksplorasi narasi subjektif mereka, yang kemudian diolah menggunakan analisis tematik. Hasil analisis model struktural menunjukkan bahwa model yang diuji mampu menjelaskan 37,5 persen varians pada variabel ketakutan menikah. Paparan media sosial terbukti menjadi prediktor eksosistem yang paling dominan dan berpengaruh positif sangat signifikan terhadap ketakutan menikah (ß = 0,407; p = 0,000). Stres finansial juga memberikan pengaruh langsung yang positif signifikan terhadap ketakutan menikah (ß = 0,129; p = 0,021). Sebaliknya, kelekatan ayah-anak (ß = -0,206; p = 0,001) dan religiusitas (ß = -0,149; p = 0,003) memiliki pengaruh langsung negatif yang signifikan terhadap ketakutan menikah. Menariknya, uji pengaruh tidak langsung membuktikan bahwa religiusitas gagal memediasi dampak destruktif dari media sosial dan stres finansial. Hal ini diperparah oleh temuan bahwa tingginya stres finansial secara nyata justru menggerus tingkat religiusitas individu (ß = -0,146; p = 0,012). Lebih lanjut, evaluasi komparatif melalui Multi-Group Analysis (MGA) mengonfirmasi bahwa mekanisme transmisi dari tekanan ekologis dalam memicu ketakutan menikah tersebut beroperasi secara universal dan invarian (tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan) antara kelompok laki-laki dan perempuan. Eksplorasi analisis tematik kualitatif memperdalam temuan kuantitatif ke dalam empat tema besar. Pertama, trauma observasional terhadap konflik dan ketidakadilan relasi ayah-ibu di masa kecil mengendap menjadi trust issue yang merusak model kerja internal (internal working model) anak dewasa, melampaui kehangatan personal secara diadik antara ayah-anak. Kedua, terdapat dualitas beban gender di mana laki-laki tertekan secara afektif oleh tuntutan kultural sebagai pencari nafkah tunggal (sole provider burden), sementara perempuan menolak komitmen akibat kecemasan akan hilangnya otonomi finansial dan eksploitasi domestik (double burden). Ketiga, algoritma media sosial bertindak sebagai pendidik baru (new educator) yang menyuntikkan bias kognitif dan memvalidasi ketakutan laten melalui hiperrealitas digital, sementara di sisi lain institusi agama tradisional mengalami skeptisisme teologis kritis. Keempat, perpanjangan status lajang pada generasi waithood terkonfirmasi bukan sebagai gangguan kecemasan klinis, melainkan bentuk resistensi kognitif yang logis demi melindungi otonomi pribadi dan mendesak jaminan relasi egaliter yang setara. Implikasi temuan ini merekomendasikan langkah intervensi strategis bagi BKKBN dan Kementerian Agama untuk merevitalisasi modul bimbingan pranikah melalui integrasi komprehensif antara literasi digital kritis, literasi ketahanan finansial, serta pemulihan trauma pengasuhan masa lalu (fatherless healing) di tingkat komunitas.

The contemporary decline in marriage rates in Indonesia, hitting its lowest point in the last decade, reflects a massive shift in social attitudes among urban young adults. The fear of marriage (gamophobia) traps the younger generation in a prolonged phase of waithood or delayed marriage, which if left unaddressed, could trigger a marriage recession and a decline in the national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below the replacement level. This study aims to analyze the descriptive characteristics, bivariate correlations, and the direct and indirect influences of past microsystem factors (father-child attachment) and contemporary exosystem-macrosystem pressures (financial stress and social media exposure) on the fear of marriage, with theological values (religiosity) serving as a mediating variable, as well as to deeply explore these psychosocial dynamics. This study implemented a mixed-method approach with an Explanatory Sequential Design. In the quantitative phase, an online survey was conducted with 300 unmarried young adults aged 21–35 years residing in urban areas of West Java and DKI Jakarta, selected via purposive sampling. Quantitative data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling - Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) via SmartPLS 4.0 software. In the qualitative phase, in-depth interviews were conducted with 5 selected informants who possessed extreme quantitative scores to explore their subjective narratives, which were subsequently processed using thematic analysis. The structural model evaluation revealed that the tested model accounted for 37.5% of the variance in the fear of marriage. Social media exposure emerged as the most dominant exosystem predictor, exerting a highly significant positive direct effect on the fear of marriage (ß = 0.407; p = 0.000). Financial stress also demonstrated a significant positive direct effect on the fear of marriage (ß = 0.129; p = 0.021). Conversely, father-child attachment (ß = -0.206; p = 0.001) and religiosity (ß = -0.149; p = 0.003) had significant negative direct effects on the fear of marriage. Interestingly, the indirect effect test indicated that religiosity failed to act as a mediator to mitigate the destructive impacts of social media exposure and financial stress; in fact, high financial stress was proven to significantly erode an individual's level of religiosity (ß = -0.146; p = 0.012). Furthermore, the comparative evaluation through Multi-Group Analysis (MGA) confirmed that the transmission mechanism of these ecological pressures in triggering the fear of marriage operates universally and invariantly (no significant difference) across male and female groups. The qualitative thematic analysis expanded the quantitative findings into four overarching themes. First, observational trauma regarding past conflicts and relational injustice between fathers and mothers during childhood solidifies into deep trust issues that fracture the adult child's internal working model, overriding personal dyadic father-child warmth. Second, a duality of gender burdens exists, where males are affectively strained by the cultural expectation of being the sole breadwinner (provider burden), while females resist commitment due to anxiety over the loss of financial autonomy and domestic exploitation (double burden). Third, social media algorithms function as a "new educator," injecting cognitive biases and validating latent anxieties through digital hyperreality, while traditional religious authority undergoes critical theological deconstruction. Fourth, the extension of singlehood among the waithood generation is confirmed not as a clinical anxiety disorder, but as a calculated and logical form of cognitive resistance to protect personal autonomy and demand egalitarian relationships. Strategic intervention recommendations are directed toward BKKBN and the Ministry of Religious Affairs to revitalize premarital counseling modules by comprehensively integrating critical digital literacy, financial resilience literacy, and family-based trauma recovery (fatherless healing) programs at the community level.