Analisis Persepsi Petani Padi dan Strategi Adaptasi Terhadap Perubahan Iklim di Desa Sukaluyu, Kecamatan Cijati, Cianjur

Abstract

Perubahan iklim mengancam stabilitas produksi padi di ekosistem tadah hujan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis persepsi petani terhadap perubahan iklim, mengidentifikasi strategi adaptasi teknis mandiri (on-farm), dan menganalisis faktor penentu probabilitas keputusan adaptasi tersebut. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Desa Sukaluyu, Kabupaten Cianjur, dengan melibatkan 77 responden yang dipilih melalui metode purposive sampling, untuk dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kuantitatif dan regresi logistik biner. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan 100% petani memiliki persepsi ancaman iklim yang tinggi hingga sangat tinggi, serta aktif melakukan adaptasi dominan berupa pergeseran waktu tanam (95%) dan pergantian varietas benih (66%), berbanding terbalik dengan adopsi pompanisasi yang sangat rendah (13%). Hasil estimasi regresi logistik membuktikan bahwa probabilitas keputusan adaptasi dipengaruhi secara positif dan signifikan oleh luas lahan garapan, sedangkan pendapatan usahatani dan keaktifan dalam kelompok tani memberikan pengaruh negatif yang signifikan. Luas lahan garapan yang besar memberikan dorongan ekonomi bagi petani untuk lebih proaktif melindungi asetnya, sementara tingginya pendapatan justru memicu fenomena perilaku bertahan secara finansial (safety net behavior), dan disfungsi kelompok tani memicu fenomena ketergantungan pada keputusan kolektif (herd behavior) yang meredam inisiatif mandiri petani untuk beradaptasi. Kesimpulan penelitian menegaskan bahwa keputusan adaptasi sangat dipengaruhi oleh rasionalitas ekonomi dan ikatan kelembagaan. Temuan ini merekomendasikan perlunya reorientasi kebijakan pemerintah menuju pembangunan infrastruktur pengairan yang merata serta revitalisasi manajemen kelompok tani.

Climate change threatens the stability of rice production in rainfed ecosystems. This study aims to analyze farmers' perceptions of climate change, identify independent on-farm technical adaptation strategies, and analyze the determining factors of the probability of these adaptation decisions. The research was conducted in Sukaluyu Village, Cianjur Regency, involving 77 respondents selected through the purposive sampling method, to be analyzed using a quantitative descriptive approach and a binary logistic regression model. The results showed that 100% of the farmers possessed a high to very high perception of the climate threat, and actively implemented dominant adaptations in the form of shifting planting schedules (95%) and changing seed varieties (66%), which inversely contrasted with the critically low adoption of water pumping technology (13%). The logistic regression estimation proved that the probability of adaptation decisions was positively and significantly influenced by the cultivated land area, whereas farming income and active participation in farmer groups had a significant negative effect. A large cultivated land area provides an economic incentive for farmers to be more proactive in protecting their assets, while high income conversely triggers a financial defense phenomenon (safety net behavior), and farmer group dysfunction triggers a collective decision-dependence phenomenon (herd behavior) that suppresses farmers' independent initiative to adapt. The conclusion of the study confirms that adaptation decisions are heavily influenced by economic rationality and institutional ties. These findings recommend the need for government policy reorientation towards the development of equitable irrigation infrastructure and the revitalization of farmer group management.