Stabilitas Politik dan Peran Moderasi Energi Terbarukan pada Emisi CO2 dalam Kerangka Environmental Kuznets Curve Negara G20

Abstract

Peningkatan emisi karbon di negara-negara G20 seiring peningkatan pendapatan per kapita mendorong pentingnya pembangunan ekonomi, kapasitas institusional, dan transisi energi dalam kerangka Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh peningkatan pendapatan per kapita, political stability, renewable energy consumption, dan trade openness terhadap emisi CO2 pada negara-negara G20, serta menguji peran moderasi energi terbarukan. Penelitian menggunakan data panel 18 negara G20 periode 2002-2021 dengan metode diagram kartesius, trendline, dan regresi data panel menggunakan Random Effect Model (REM). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa hipotesis EKC terbukti pada kelompok advanced economies dan emerging economies dengan pola inverted U. Political stability berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap emisi CO2, sedangkan trade openness berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap emisi karbon. Selain itu, interaksi pendapatan per kapita dan konsumsi energi terbarukan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap emisi CO2. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan penggunaan energi terbarukan mendukung peningkatan pendapatan per kapita yang lebih rendah emisi pada negara-negara G20.

The increase in carbon emissions alongside income per capita in G20 countries highlights the importance of economic development, institutional capacity, and energy transition within the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. This study analyzes the effects of income per capita, political stability, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness on CO2 emissions in G20 countries, as well as the moderating role of renewable energy. The study uses panel data from 18 G20 countries during 2002-2021 with Cartesian diagrams, trendline analysis, and panel data regression using the Random Effect Model (REM). The results show that the EKC hypothesis is confirmed in both advanced and emerging economies with an inverted U relationship in statistics. Political stability has a negative and significant effect on CO2 emissions, while trade openness has a positive and significant effect. Moreover, the interaction between income per capita and renewable energy consumption negatively and significantly affects CO2 emissions, indicating that higher renewable energy use supports lower-emission income per capita in G20 countries.