Analisis Pengaruh Ketidakpastian Global dan Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi terhadap Investasi Asing Langsung di Negara BRIC

Abstract

Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Ketidakpastian Global, serta variabel makroekonomi terhadap investasi asing langsung di negara BRIC periode 2003 - 2024 menggunakan metode Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang, ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung, sedangkan Trade berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung. Peningkatan 1% ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi menurunkan investasi asing langsung sebesar 0,7% akibat kenaikan policy risk, sementara kenaikan 1% keterbukaan perdagangan justru menaikkan FDI sebesar 8% karena mencerminkan semakin terbukanya perdagangan. Peningkatan 10% pertumbuhan ekonomi akan meningkatkan investasi asing langsung sebesar 11.56%. Depresiasi mata uang sebesar 1% juga menurunkan investasi asing langsung sebesar 10% akibat tingginya risiko nilai tukar. Sebaliknya, ketidakpastian global dan inflasi tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan dalam jangka panjang.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Uncertainty, as well as Macroeconomic Variables, on Foreign Direct Investment in BRIC Countries for the Period 2003-2024 Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Panel Method. The results show that in the long run, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, and exchange rates have a negative and significant effect on foreign direct investment, while trade has a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment. 1% increase in economic policy uncertainty reduces foreign direct investment by 0.7% due to increased policy risk, while 1% increase in trade openness actually increases FDI by 8% as it reflects greater trade openness. 10% increase in economic growth will increase foreign direct investment by 11.56%. 1% currency depreciation also reduces foreign direct investment by 10% due to high exchange rate risk. Conversely, global uncertainty and inflation do not show a significant impact in the long run