Analisis Asimetris Pengaruh Nilai Tukar dan Fenomena J-Curve terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Pertanian Indonesia dengan Mitra Dagang Utama

Abstract

Sektor pertanian memegang peran strategis dalam perekonomian Indonesia, namun kinerja neraca perdagangan pertaniannya sangat dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak asimetris perubahan nilai tukar riil terhadap neraca perdagangan pertanian Indonesia dengan empat mitra dagang utama (China, Amerika Serikat, India, dan Malaysia) serta mengidentifikasi keberadaan fenomena J-Curve secara bilateral. Data yang digunakan merupakan data kuartalan periode 2015:Q1 hingga 2025:Q4. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh nilai tukar tidak bersifat sama antarmitra dagang. Fenomena J-Curve hanya terjadi pada hubungan dagang Indonesia-Amerika Serikat. Selain itu, asimetris jangka panjang terbukti pada Indonesia-India, sementara asimetris jangka pendek terbukti pada Indonesia-Amerika Serikat. Dengan demikian, implikasi penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa respons neraca perdagangan pertanian terhadap perubahan nilai tukar bergantung pada karakteristik pola perdagangan masing-masing negara mitra.

Agricultural sector holds a strategic role in the Indonesian economy, but the performance of its agricultural trade balance is significantly influenced by fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate. This study aims to analyze the asymmetric impact of real exchange rate changes on Indonesia's agricultural trade balance with four major trading partners (China, United States, India, and Malaysia), as well as to identify the existence of the bilateral J-Curve phenomenon. The data employed are quarterly data covering the period 2015:Q1 to 2025:Q4. The analytical method used is the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The findings indicate that the effect of the exchange rate is not uniform across trading partners. The J-Curve phenomenon are found to hold only in the case of the Indonesia-United States trading partnership. In addition, long-run asymmetry is found to be statistically significant for Indonesia-India, whereas short-run asymmetry is found to be statistically significant for Indonesia-United States. Thus, this study implies that the responsiveness of the agricultural trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations depends on the trading pattern characteristics specific to each partner country.