Dampak Kebijakan Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) terhadap Ekspor Produk Sawit Indonesiadan Malaysia ke Uni Eropa

Abstract

Palm oil is a strategic commodity for Indonesia and Malaysia, but its exports to the European Union face pressure due to the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) policy, which limits the use of palm oil as a biofuel feedstock due to sustainability issues and the risk of Indirect Land Use Change. This study aims to analyze the impact of RED II on Indonesian and Malaysian Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Refined Palm Oil (RPO) exports to five major European Union countries. The study uses panel data from 2000–2023 with a gravity model approach. The estimation results show that RED II has a significant negative effect on Indonesian and Malaysian CPO exports, with a greater impact on Indonesia than Malaysia. Conversely, RED II has no significant effect on RPO exports. These results indicate that the RED II policy puts more pressure on upstream products related to biofuels than on processed products that have wider uses.