Analisis Determinan Human Development Index serta Pengaruhnya terhadap Output Nasional di Kawasan Asia-Pasifik

Abstract

Sejak 1990, HDI di kawasan Asia-Pasifik tumbuh paling pesat di dunia, meningkat 0,20. Namun, belum merata antarnegara dan tidak selalu sejalan dengan output nasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi HDI serta pengaruh HDI terhadap output nasional di 22 negara kawasan Asia-Pasifik periode 2009–2023, menggunakan analisis statistika deskriptif dan Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Hasil first stage menunjukkan pengeluaran pendidikan tahun sebelumnya, pengeluaran kesehatan, dan ICT mendorong peningkatan HDI, sedangkan pandemi Covid-19 menurunkan HDI. Hasil second stage menunjukkan HDI, good governance, dan tenaga kerja mendorong peningkatan output nasional, sementara FDI tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini menunjukkan pembangunan manusia menjadi pendorong utama output nasional, sehingga investasi pendidikan, kesehatan, akses teknologi, dan tata kelola pemerintahan perlu menjadi prioritas kebijakan.

Since 1990, HDI in the Asia-Pacific region has grown faster than any other region in the world, rising by 0.20 points. This progress, however, has not been evenly distributed across countries and does not always move in line with national output. This study examines the factors influencing HDI and the effect of HDI on national output in 22 Asia-Pacific countries over the 2009–2023 period, using descriptive statistical analysis and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The first-stage results show that lagged education expenditure, health expenditure, and ICT contribute to higher HDI, while the Covid-19 pandemic lowers it. The second-stage results indicate that HDI, good governance, and labor drive national output upward, whereas FDI shows no significant effect. These findings suggest that human development serves as a key driver of national output, pointing to the need for policies that prioritize investment in education and health, broader access to technology, and stronger governance.