Pendugaan Sebaran Habitat Tuna Sirip Kuning di Laut Flores Menggunakan Species Distribution Model

Abstract

Climate change memicu dinamika parameter oseanografi secara signifikan sehingga berdampak pada pergeseran habitat dan kelimpahan tuna sirip kuning (Thunnus albacares) di Laut Flores. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menduga sebaran habitat tuna sirip kuning di Laut Flores yang berpeluang sebagai zona potensial lokasi penangkapan. Pendugaan menggunakan pendekatan maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model dengan logbook penangkapan tuna sirip kuning tahun 2023 sebagai data presence dan parameter oseanografi proyeksi climate change condition 2020-2030 sebagai variabel lingkungan. Parameter tersebut meliputi suhu permukaan laut, klorofil-a, salinitas, mixed layer depth, dan dissolved oxygen. Hasil menunjukkan produktivitas tertinggi tercatat di Januari, dengan lokasi penangkapan selama tahun 2023 di perairan Sabalana, Tengah, utara Sumbawa, Makassar, Selayar, Tanjung Bira, dan Pamanukan. Kisaran nilai parameter oseanografi proyeksi 2020-2030 yaitu, suhu permukaan laut 28,70-30,00°C, klorofil-a 0,09-0,21 mg/m3, salinitas 32,6-33,7 PSU, mixed layer depth 15-73 meter, dan dissolved oxygen 6,37-6,49 mg/L. Performa model MaxEnt berdasarkan nilai Area Under Curve sebesar 0,82 tergolong baik dan dapat diandalkan. Hasil pendugaan habitat tuna sirip kuning di Laut Flores berada di bagian tengah, mulai dari selatan hingga timur laut. Hasil ini dapat menjadi acuan zona penangkapan tuna sirip kuning di Laut Flores.

Climate change significantly drives the dynamics of oceanographics parameters, thereby affecting the shift in habitat and abundance of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Flores Sea. This study aims to estimate the distribution of yellowfin tuna habitat in the Flores Sea as a potential fishing zone. The estimation used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with 2023 catch logbook as presence data and projected oceanographic parameters under the 2020-2030 climate change condition as environmental variables. The parameters used include sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, salinity, mixed layer depth, and dissolved oxygen. Results showed that the highest productivity was recorded in January, with fishing location during 2023 located in the waters of Sabalana, Tengah, northern Sumbawa, Makassar, Selayar, Tanjung Bira, and Pamanukan. The projected range for 2020-2030 was sea surface temperature 28.70-30.00°C, chlorophyll-a 0.09-0.21 mg/m3, salinity 32.6-33.7 PSU, mixed layer depth 15-73 m, and dissolved oxygen 6.37-6.49 mg/L. The MaxEnt model performance, based on an Area Under Curve value of 0.82, was good and reliable. The estimation results indicate that yellowfin tuna habitat in the Flores Sea is located in the central part, extending from south to northeast. The findings can serve as a reference for determining yellowfin tuna fishing zones.