Analisis Pengaruh Trade Openness dan Foreign Direct Investment terhadap Unemployment : Studi Kasus Indonesia dan Vietnam Tahun 1992-2024

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh Trade Openness (TR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), dan GDP terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia dan Vietnam (1992-2024). Melalui statistik deskriptif dan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), hasil visualisasi mengungkap kerentanan struktural Indonesia akibat volatilitas ekstrem TR dan FDI, berbanding terbalik dengan resiliensi Vietnam. Meski penyesuaian pasar tenaga kerja jangka pendek di kedua negara terindikasi lambat, estimasi VECM jangka panjang menunjukkan TR dan FDI signifikan menurunkan pengangguran di Indonesia, sedangkan GDP justru memicu jobless growth. Di Vietnam, TR efektif menekan pengangguran, namun FDI tidak signifikan karena langsung terserap ke sektor padat karya. Analisis dinamis membuktikan pasar tenaga kerja Vietnam lebih tangguh; sementara guncangan FDI di Indonesia memicu pengangguran akibat bias investasi padat modal. Kebijakan mendesak perlunya reorientasi investasi menuju sektor padat karya dan program vokasi guna memitigasi skills mismatch.

This study analyzes the effect of Trade Openness (TR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and GDP on unemployment in Indonesia and Vietnam (1992-2024). Using descriptive statistics and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), visual findings reveal Indonesia's structural vulnerability due to extreme TR and FDI volatility, contrasting with Vietnam’s resilience. Although short-term labor market adjustments are slow, long-term VECM estimations show TR and FDI significantly reduce unemployment in Indonesia, while GDP paradoxically triggers jobless growth. In Vietnam, TR effectively reduces unemployment, whereas FDI is insignificant due to its absorption into labor-intensive sectors. Dynamic analyses prove Vietnam's labor market is more resilient, while FDI shocks in Indonesia trigger unemployment due to capital-intensive biases. Policy implications emphasize reorienting investments toward labor-intensive sectors and strengthening vocational programs to mitigate skills mismatch.