Analisis Kebijakan Renewable Energy Directive (RED) II dan Daya Saing CPO Indonesia ke Pasar Uni Eropa

Abstract

Uni Eropa merupakan salah satu pasar utama ekspor CPO Indonesia, namun implementasi Renewable Energy Directive (RED) II membatasi penggunaan minyak sawit sebagai bahan baku biofuel sehingga berpotensi memengaruhi kinerja ekspor dan daya saing CPO Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan daya saing CPO Indonesia, menguji dampak RED II terhadap kinerja ekspor, serta merumuskan strategi penguatan daya saing di Jerman, Spanyol, Italia, dan Belanda selama periode 2013-2024. Metode yang digunakan meliputi Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), X-Model, paired sample t-test, studi literatur, in-depth interview, dan analisis Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, dan Threats (SWOT). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai ekspor CPO Indonesia meningkat hingga 2017, kemudian menurun setelah implementasi RED II. Nilai RSCA tetap positif, tetapi cenderung melemah, sedangkan hasil paired sample t-test menunjukkan penurunan signifikan pada rata-rata nilai ekspor dan RSCA di Jerman, Italia, Belanda, dan Uni Eropa secara agregat. Analisis SWOT menempatkan industri sawit Indonesia pada posisi hold and maintain.

The European Union is one of the main export markets for Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO). However, the implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) II restricts the use of palm oil as a biofuel feedstock, potentially affecting Indonesia's export performance and competitiveness. This study aims to analyze the development of Indonesian CPO exports and competitiveness, examine the impact of RED II on export performance, and formulate strategies to strengthen competitiveness in Germany, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands during the 2013-2024 period. The methods employed include Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), the X-Model, the paired sample t-test, literature review, in-depth interviews, and Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis. The results indicate that the export value of Indonesian CPO increased until 2017 but declined following the implementation of RED II. Although RSCA values remained positive, they showed a weakening trend, while the paired sample t-test revealed significant declines in the average export value and RSCA in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the European Union as a whole. The SWOT analysis places the Indonesian palm oil industry in the hold and maintain position.