Pengaruh Financial Development dan Financial Technology terhadap Shadow Economy: Pendekatan Nonlinier

Abstract

Shadow economy menjadi permasalahan bagi stabilitas ekonomi karena aktivitas ekonomi yang tidak tercatat dapat menurunkan keandalan statistik nasional dan menggerus basis pajak. Perkembangan sektor keuangan dan teknologi keuangan diharapkan mampu meningkatkan transparansi transaksi dan mendorong formalisasi ekonomi. Namun, pengaruh keduanya terhadap shadow economy diduga tidak selalu linier. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh financial development dan financial technology terhadap shadow economy serta mengidentifikasi pola hubungan nonlinier di negara maju dan berkembang periode 2005–2020. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis data panel statis dengan fixed effect model dan driscoll-kraay standard error, dengan variabel utama diproksikan menggunakan Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Hasil menunjukkan hubungan inverted U-shaped di negara maju, U-shaped di negara berkembang, dan S-shaped pada seluruh sampel. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa efektivitas financial development dan financial technology bergantung pada perkembangan sektor keuangan dan kesiapan institusi.

The shadow economy poses a challenge to economic stability because unrecorded economic activities reduce the reliability of national statistics and erode the tax base. Financial development and financial technology are expected to increase transaction transparency and encourage economic formalization. However, their effects on the shadow economy may be nonlinear. This study analyzes the effects of financial development and financial technology on the shadow economy and identifies nonlinear relationship patterns in developed and developing countries over the period 2005–2020. The study employs static panel data analysis using a fixed effect model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, while the main variables are proxied using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship in developed countries, a U-shaped relationship in developing countries, and an S-shaped relationship for the full sample. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of financial development and financial technology depends on financial sector development and institutional readiness.