Indikasi Premature Deindustrialization dan Determinan Nilai Tambah Sektor Manufaktur Indonesia: Analisis Sektoral ISIC 2-Digit Periode 1990–2022

Abstract

Sektor manufaktur memiliki peran penting dalam proses industrialisasi karena mampu menciptakan nilai tambah yang tinggi dan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun, dalam beberapa dekade terakhir kontribusi sektor manufaktur di Indonesia cenderung stagnan dibandingkan sektor jasa, sehingga memunculkan indikasi premature deindustrialization. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi indikasi premature deindustrialization, memetakan daya saing subsektor manufaktur, serta menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi nilai tambah subsektor manufaktur pada tingkat ISIC 2-digit selama periode 1990–2022. Metode yang digunakan meliputi analisis deskriptif, Product Mapping, dan regresi data panel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kontribusi terhadap PDB dan tenaga kerja pada sektor manufaktur relatif stagnan dan menurun dibandingkan dengan sektor jasa pada tingkat pendapatan per kapita yang masih relatif rendah sehingga mengindikasikan premature deindustrialization. Pemetaan Product Mapping menunjukkan bahwa daya saing manufaktur Indonesia masih bertumpu pada keunggulan berbasis sumber daya alam. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa investasi, produktivitas tenaga kerja, biaya input produksi, nilai tukar, dan keterbukaan perdagangan signifikan terhadap nilai tambah subsektor manufaktur, sedangkan share ekspor tidak signifikan.

The manufacturing sector plays an important role in the industrialization process as it generates high value added and promotes economic growth. However, over the past few decades the contribution of manufacturing in Indonesia has tended to stagnate relative to the service sector, indicating the possibility of premature deindustrialization. This study aims to identify indications of premature deindustrialization, map the competitiveness of manufacturing subsectors, and analyze the factors influencing MVA at the ISIC 2-digit level during the period 1990–2022. The methods used include descriptive analysis, Product Mapping, and panel data regression. The results show that the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP and employment has been relatively stagnant and declining compared to the service sector at a relatively low level of GDP per capita, indicating premature deindustrialization. The Product Mapping results reveal that the competitiveness of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector still relies largely on resource-based advantages. The regression results indicate that investment, labor productivity, production input costs, exchange rates, and trade openness have significant relationships with MVA, while export share is not significant.