Komparasi Daya Saing dan Analisis Determinan Ekspor Tekstil (HS 611020) Indonesia dan China

Abstract

China merupakan salah satu eksportir utama tekstil HS 611020 di pasar global dan menjadi pesaing utama Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis daya saing dan determinan ekspor tekstil HS 611020 Indonesia dan China di sepuluh negara tujuan utama periode 2013–2023. Daya saing dianalisis menggunakan RCA, EPD, dan X-Model, sedangkan determinan ekspor dianalisis menggunakan regresi data panel dengan Random Effect Model (REM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia dan China sama-sama memiliki keunggulan komparatif pada sebagian besar negara tujuan ekspor. Namun, setelah perang dagang Amerika Serikat dan China, daya saing Indonesia cenderung meningkat, sedangkan China mengalami pelemahan relatif. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa GDP riil per kapita dan Consumer Price Index (CPI) negara tujuan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor kedua negara, sementara tarif impor tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Dummy trade war berpengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor Indonesia dan positif terhadap ekspor China. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa dampak perang dagang terhadap kinerja ekspor kedua negara berbeda selama periode penelitian.

China is one of the leading exporters of HS 611020 textile products in the global market and serves as Indonesia’s main competitor. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and determinants of HS 611020 textile exports from Indonesia and China in ten major destination countries during the period 2013 2023. Competitiveness was analyzed using RCA, EPD, and the X-Model, while export determinants were analyzed using panel data regression with the Random Effect Model (REM). The results show that both Indonesia and China possess comparative advantages in most destination markets. However, following the United States–China trade war, Indonesia's competitiveness tended to strengthen, whereas China experienced a relative weakening. The regression results indicate that the destination country's real GDP per capita and Consumer Price Index (CPI) have a positive and significant effect on both countries' exports, while import tariffs show no significant effect. Meanwhile, the trade war dummy variable has a negative effect on Indonesia’s exports and a positive effect on China’s exports. These findings indicate that the trade war affected the export performance of the two countries differently during the study period.