Analisis Pengaruh Asimetris Determinan Arus Masuk Remitansi di China Tahun 1982–2024: Pendekatan NARDL

Abstract

Arus masuk remitansi memiliki peran penting sebagai penyangga makroekonomi, namun rentan terhadap guncangan asimetris. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh asimetris ketidakpastian dunia, keterbukaan perdagangan, Akses Institusi Keuangan, dan nilai tukar terhadap remitansi di China periode 1982-2024 menggunakan metode NARDL. China dipilih sebagai objek penelitian karena kestabilannya dibanding sumber dana asing lain. Hasil estimasi mengonfirmasi kointegrasi jangka panjang dengan pengaruh asimetris jangka panjang pada Ketidakpastian Dunia, Keterbukaan Perdagangan, dan Nilai Tukar. Peningkatan ketidakpastian dan restriksi dagang memicu lonjakan remitansi (motif asuransi), sedangkan fluktuasi nilai tukar (apresiasi/depresiasi) justru menyusutkannya. Sebaliknya, Akses Institusi Keuangan berpengaruh simetris dan negatif, mengonfirmasi hipotesis substitusi finansial. Hampir seluruh variabel simetri dalam jangka pendek, kecuali keterbukaan perdagangan yang tidak diestimasi. Pemerintah disarankan mengoptimalkan jaring pengaman sosial guna memitigasi guncangan eksternal, serta menstabilkan volatilitas nilai tukar.

Remittance inflows play a crucial role as a macroeconomic buffer, yet they remain vulnerable to asymmetric shocks. This study aims to analyze the asymmetric effects of world uncertainty, trade openness, financial institution access, and the exchange rate on remittances in China from 1982 to 2024 using NARDL approach. China is selected as the research object due to its stability compared to other sources of foreign funds. The estimation results confirm long-run cointegration, revealing long-run asymmetric effects of world uncertainty, trade openness, and the exchange rate. An increase in uncertainty and trade restrictions triggers a surge in remittances, confirming the insurance motive, whereas exchange rate fluctuations (both appreciation and depreciation) conversely reduce them. Conversely, financial institution access exerts a symmetric and negative effect, validating the financial substitution hypothesis. In the short run, the transmission of shocks across almost all independent variables is symmetric, except for trade openness, which is not estimated in the model specification. Consequently, the government is advised to optimize social safety nets to mitigate external shocks and to stabilize exchange rate volatility.