Analisis Efek Asimetris Determinan Arus Penerimaan Remitansi Indonesia Tahun 1987-2024

Abstract

Remitansi merupakan sumber dana eksternal yang krusial bagi Indonesia. Arus dana remitansi lebih stabil dibandingkan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) dan melampaui Official Development Assistance (ODA). Respons remitansi terhadap guncangan makroekonomi sering kali tidak proporsional. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh asimetris pendidikan, ketidakpastian ekonomi, suku bunga riil, dan emisi karbon terhadap penerimaan remitansi di Indonesia. Digunakan data sekunder time series tahun 1987-2024 yang bersumber dari World Development Indicators (WDI) dan World Uncertainty Index (WUI). Metode penelitian yaitu analisis deskriptif dan pendekatan ekonometrika melalui Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). Korelasi pendidikan dan emisi karbon kuat, sedangkan korelasi ketidakpastian ekonomi dan suku bunga riil lemah dengan penerimaan remitansi di Indonesia. Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat efek asimetris antara pendidikan, ketidakpastian ekonomi, suku bunga riil, dan emisi karbon di jangka panjang terhadap penerimaan remitansi di Indonesia. Variabel pendidikan dan ketidakpastian ekonomi juga memberikan efek asimetris di jangka pendek.

Remittances are a crucial source of external funding for Indonesia. Remittance flows are more stable than Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and exceed Official Development Assistance (ODA). The response of remittances to macroeconomic shocks is often disproportionate. This study analyzes the asymmetric effects of education, economic uncertainty, real interest rates, and carbon emissions on remittance inflows in Indonesia. It utilizes secondary time-series data from 1987 to 2024, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). The research methods employed include descriptive analysis and an econometric approach using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The results reveal that education and carbon emissions have a strong correlation with remittance inflows in Indonesia, whereas economic uncertainty and real interest rates show a weak correlation. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that education, economic uncertainty, real interest rates, and carbon emissions have long-term asymmetric effects on remittance inflows in Indonesia. Additionally, the variables of education and economic uncertainty also exhibit asymmetric effects in the short term.