Analisis Daya Saing dan Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi terhadap Ekspor Nikel Indonesia

Abstract

Kebijakan hilirisasi nikel melalui pembatasan ekspor bijih dan penguatan industri pengolahan diarahkan untuk meningkatkan nilai tambah serta memperkuat posisi Indonesia dalam rantai nilai global. Namun, kinerja ekspor produk nikel Indonesia, berupa Nickel Pig Iron maupun stainless steel, masih menunjukkan dinamika yang fluktuatif. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perbandingan daya saing ekspor nikel sebelum dan sesudah hilirisasi serta dampak kebijakan hilirisasi dan determinan lainnya terhadap nilai ekspor kedua produk tersebut. Metode yang digunakan meliputi RCA, EPD, X-Model, dan regresi data panel. Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya pergeseran keunggulan komparatif dari Nickel Pig Iron ke stainless steel, meskipun struktur posisi pasar relatif tidak mengalami perubahan. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa RCA berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai ekspor kedua produk. GDP riil negara tujuan tidak berpengaruh pada Nickel Pig Iron namun berpengaruh negatif pada stainless steel, nilai tukar riil hanya berpengaruh pada Nickel Pig Iron, serta dummy hilirisasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor kedua produk.

The nickel downstreaming policy, which involves restricting ore exports and strengthening the processing industry, is aimed at increasing value added and reinforcing Indonesia’s position in the global value chain. However, the export performance of Indonesia’s nickel products, specifically nickel pig iron and stainless steel, continues to exhibit fluctuating trends. This study aims to analyze the comparison of nickel export competitiveness before and after downstreaming, as well as the impact of downstreaming policies and other determinants on the export value of these two products. The methods used include RCA, EPD, the X-Model, and panel data regression. The analysis results indicate a shift in comparative advantage from Nickel Pig Iron to stainless steel, although the relative market position structure has not changed. Regression results indicate that RCA has a positive effect on the export value of both products. The real GDP of the destination country has no effect on Nickel Pig Iron but has a negative effect on stainless steel, the real exchange rate affects only Nickel Pig Iron, and the downstream processing dummy variable has a negative effect on the exports of both products.