Dampak Ketidakpastian Global, Keterbukaan Ekonomi, dan Good Governance terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Negara Berkembang Asia

Abstract

Meningkatnya ketidakpastian global yang diiringi guncangan keterbukaan ekonomi berpotensi memengaruhi kinerja perekonomian, dengan good governance berperan dalam meredam dampaknya. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh ketidakpastian global, keterbukaan ekonomi, dan good governance terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 20 negara berkembang Asia periode 2002–2023, serta mengkaji peran good governance sebagai variabel moderasi. Metode yang digunakan mencakup Tipologi Klassen dan regresi data panel FEM dengan dua model, yaitu indeks komposit good governance hasil PCA dan pengujian per indikator. Hasil menunjukkan negara dengan ketidakpastian tinggi, keterbukaan rendah, dan tata kelola lemah cenderung tumbuh lebih lambat. Secara empiris, keterbukaan ekonomi, investasi asing langsung, dan control of corruption berpengaruh positif signifikan, sedangkan ketidakpastian global, pertumbuhan penduduk, pengeluaran pemerintah, dummy krisis keuangan global, dummy COVID-19, interaksi good governance dengan ketidakpastian global, serta government effectiveness berpengaruh negatif signifikan.

Rising global uncertainty, coupled with shocks to economic openness, has the potential to affect economic performance, with good governance playing a role in mitigating these impacts. This study analyzes the effects of global uncertainty, economic openness, and good governance on economic growth in 20 Asian developing countries over the period 2002–2023, and examines the role of good governance as a moderating variable. The methods employed include Klassen’s typology and FEM panel data regression using two models: a composite good governance index derived from PCA and indicator-specific tests. The results indicate that countries with high uncertainty, low openness, and weak governance tend to grow more slowly. Empirically, economic openness, foreign direct investment, and control of corruption have a significant positive effect, while global uncertainty, population growth, government spending, the global financial crisis dummy, the COVID-19 dummy, the interaction between good governance and global uncertainty, and government effectiveness have a significant negative effect.