Pasar Manufaktur Indonesia ke Negara BRICS: Daya Saing dan Determinan

Abstract

Menurunnya kinerja ekspor manufaktur Indonesia di pasar tradisional mendorong pentingnya diversifikasi ke pasar non-tradisional seperti BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China, dan Afrika Selatan). Penelitian ini menganalisis daya saing dan faktor-faktor penentu ekspor produk manufaktur Indonesia ke negara-negara BRICS, dengan komoditas ISIC Revisi 3 Divisi 22 selama periode 2004–2021. Metode yang digunakan mencakup pendekatan deskriptif dan kuantitatif, melalui analisis Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), X-Model, serta regresi data panel dengan pendekatan Random Effects Model (REM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produk manufaktur Indonesia memiliki potensi pada pasar BRICS. Nilai ekspor dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh PDB negara pengimpor, nilai tukar riil, nilai RCA, kontribusi sektor manufaktur terhadap PDB negara tujuan, serta partisipasi dalam BRICS. Berdasarkan hsail penelitian ini diperlukan penguatan kemitraan dengan BRICS, peningkatan daya saing produk dengan strategi diversifikasi pasar serta spesialisasi produk untuk meningkatkan kinerja ekspor Indonesia di pasar BRICS. Kata kunci: BRICS, daya saing, manufaktur, random effect

The declining performance of Indonesia's manufacturing exports in traditional markets highlights the importance of diversifying into non-traditional markets such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). This study analysis the competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia’s manufactured exports to BRICS countries, focusing on commodities classified under ISIC Revision 3 Division 22 during the period 2004–2021. The research employs descriptive and quantitative approaches through Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), the X-Model, and panel data regression using the Random Effects Model (REM). The results indicate that Indonesian manufactured products have strong potential in BRICS markets. Export performance is significantly influenced by the GDP of importing countries, real exchange rates, RCA values, the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the importers' GDP, and participation in BRICS cooperation. Based on the results of this research, it is necessary to strengthening partnerships with BRICS countries, improving product competitiveness through market diversification strategies, and product specialization to enhance Indonesia’s export performance in BRICS markets. Keywords: BRICS, competitiveness, manufacture, random effect