Real Option Valuation Using Binomial Decision Trees.

Abstract

A firm that decides to invest has a choice to invest in real assets. A method which is usually used in valuation of the project is discounted cash flow (DCF) method. But, this method can’t be used in projects that account for value of managerial flexibility, such as decision to suspend operations temporarily. Therefore, this kind of project needs to be assessed using real option. Real option valuation can be done in some ways, including the use of path-dependent simulation, as well as closed-form models like Black-Scholes model, partial differential equation, and binomial or multinomial approaches. In this paper, real option valuation using binomial decisions id discussed. Determination of the project value can be done in three steps. First, calculate the expected present value of the project. Next, calculate volatility of the project using Monte Carlo simulation. Last, construct a binomial tree to model the dynamics of the project value using the parameters of the stochastic process, and then add some decision nodes to model the project’s real options.