Pengaruh Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) terhadap Ekspor Sektor Manufaktur Indonesia

Abstract

Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) is one of the factors that can affect economic activities in almost every country, including international trade. Indonesia has a prominent sector, which is the manufacturing sector. The EPU of importing countries greatly influences the demand for exports, making it important to further analyze the impact of the EPU of importing countries on Indonesia's manufacturing sector. This research aims to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian manufacturing products in destination countries using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) method and to analyze the impact of EPU, Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate, Population, and FTA Dummy on the export value of the Indonesian manufacturing sector using panel data regression from 2017 to 2021. Based on the RCA analysis, there were 9 manufacturing subsectors that had an RCA value greater than 1, also competitive in 12 destination countries. The results of the panel data regression analysis indicated that the value of exports from the Indonesian manufacturing sector decreased as a result of the rise in EPU.

Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) merupakan salah satu faktor yang dapat memengaruhi kegiatan perekonomian hampir di seluruh negara, termasuk dalam perdagangan internasional. Indonesia memiliki sektor unggulan yaitu sektor manufaktur. EPU negara importir sangat memengaruhi permintaan terhadap ekspor sehingga penting untuk melakukan analisis lebih lanjut terhadap pengaruh dari EPU negara importir sektor manufaktur Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis daya saing produk sektor manufaktur indonesia di negara tujuan dengan metode Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) dan pengaruh dari variabel EPU, GDP Riil, Nilai Tukar riil, Populasi, dan Dummy FTA terhadap nilai ekspor sektor manufaktur Indonesia dengan regresi data panel, dari tahun 2017-2021. Berdasarkan analisis RCA terdapat 9 subsektor manufaktur yang memiliki nilai RCA>1 dan berdaya saing di 12 negara tujuan. Hasil analisis regresi data panel menunjukkan bahwa nilai ekspor sektor manufaktur Indonesia akan menurun sejalan dengan adanya peningkatan dari EPU.