Pengaruh Harga Daging Ayam Ras, Covid-19, dan Determinan Lain terhadap Spillover Effect Inflasi Tingkat Regional di Indonesia
Abstract
Pandemi Covid-19 berdampak pada pergerakan permintaan dan penawaran komoditas pangan strategis, salah satunya adalah daging ayam ras yang memiliki fluktuasi harga dan memberikan andil terhadap inflasi sebagai salah satu tolak ukur kondisi perekonomian. Pergerakan inflasi perlu diawasi serta dikendalikan dengan mempertimbangkan faktor moneter dan non moneter. Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan inflasi, harga daging ayam ras, upah minimum provinsi, suku bunga kredit konsumsi, dan kredit UMKM tingkat regional di Indonesia. Selain itu, penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh determinan inflasi regional serta interaksi spasial yang berdampak pada spillover inflasi regional dengan mempertimbangkan dummy Covid-19. Penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia selama 2018-2021 dan dianalisis menggunakan metode panel spasial. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan harga daging ayam ras dan upah minimum provinsi memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap inflasi suatu provinsi serta provinsi terdekat. Sebaliknya, suku bunga kredit konsumsi, kredit UMKM, dan dummy Covid-19 memiliki pengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap inflasi suatu provinsi dan provinsi terdekat. The Covid-19 pandemic impacted the demand and supply of a strategic food commodity, such as chicken meat with fluctuating prices, thus affecting the inflation rate, which is one of the benchmarks for economic conditions. Inflation needs to be monitored and controlled by considering monetary and non-monetary factors. This study analyzes the development of inflation, chicken meat prices,
provincial minimum wages, interest rates for consumption loans, and MSME loans. This study also analyzes the impact of regional inflation determinants and spatial interactions that impact the spillover of regional inflation bu considering the Covid-19 dummy. This study uses monthly data from 34 provinces in Indonesia for 2018-2021 and analyzes using the spatial panel method. The results
showed that the price of chicken meat prices and the provincial minimum wage have a significant positive effect on inflation in a province and the nearest province. In contrast, interest rates for consumption loans, MSME loans, and the Covid-19 dummy have a significant negative effect on in a province and the nearest province.