The Analysis of Factors Affecting Diphtheria Disease in East Java on 2017

Abstract

Diphtheria is a contagious disease caused by the Corynebacterium diphtheria bacteria that attacks the upper respiratory system. Poisson regression method was used to model diphtheria data and its relations between diphtheria cases and various factors assuming equidispersion. However, data of contagious disease may produce overdispersion outcome. Hence, negative binomial regression was implemented. Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) was used to measure goodness of fit of the model. Negative binomial regression was chosen as a better model as it showed lower AIC value than Poisson regression. Factors that influenced number of diphtheria cases in East Java were immunization coverage, population density, and percentage of UCI village.