| dc.description.abstract | Currently, the mechanism of tax revenue allocation is still being distributed by top
down mechanism, in which the distribution pattern is in the form of targets approved by
DPR (House of Representatives) even though the initial draft comes from the government.
Therefore, the national tax revenue forecast is not effective and needs a more
comprehensive model to improve the tax planning
This research is conducted to identify the environment turbulence which will affect
economic fluctuation by using business cycle method. The behavior of this economic
fluctuation will surely influence the fluctuation of tax revenue. The objective of this
research is to identify this economic fluctuation by designing a model of early warning
system which is called the Taxes Early Warning System (TEWS) and tax revenue modeling
in Indonesia. In addition, this research will also examine the effects of these environmental
shocks to the national tax revenue fluctuation in all tax offices in Indonesia.
The research is conducted using monthly time series data and also applying two
indicators : Income Tax and Value Added Tax. The result of this research is divided into
four main topics. One of the important outcomes of this research, based on business cycles
analysis, is the Taxes Early Warning System (TEWS) model. The best performance of
Income Tax composite leading index is performed by Stepwise Regression model which
consists of 14 particular components. While the best performance for the composite leading
index of Value Added Tax is shown by Best Subset Regression model which consists of 9
particular components.
From the VAR analysis result by Income Tax modeling series, it is known that there
are 3 indicators having complete pass-through degrees more than one (complete pass
through), which are hotel occupancy rate, money supply and fuel consumption. Meanwhile
through the Value Added Tax series, the indicator shows the incomplete pass through
degree. From the FEVD analysis result, both short term and long term, the external shock
variability cannot explain the fluctuation of tax revenue as a benchmark series.
The panel data analysis is used to examine the effects of economic fluctuation on
31 Kanwil DJP all over Indonesia and the results show that the fluctuation variable of
TEWS gives positive effect to the tax income performance at Kanwil Khusus, Kanwil WP
Besar 1 and 2, Kanwil Jakarta Selatan and Kanwil Jakarta Pusat. By using tax revenue
modeling, it is known that within observing period, the surplus of income tax and value
added tax has occured. The surplus proves that tax revenue projection until now is still
being defined by top down policy pattern.
Based on the research results, it can be concluded that there are five important
variables which can influence the tax revenue performance, there are fuel consumptions,
fuel price, domestic inflation, money supply and exchange rate. On the other hand, none of
those variables are in the DGT authorization. In this case, DGT just only can anticipate the
effects of the fluctuation of economic variable upon the tax revenue. To support the
implementation of TEWS application, it has been designed the alternative strategy as an
alternative of DGT strategy which has been declared in Strategic Planning 2009-2012. | id |
