Fleksibilitas Nilai Tukar dan Penyesuaian Transaksi Berjalan di Indonesia: Analisis Threshold VAR

Abstract

Estimation study about the relationship between exchange rate flexibility and current account adjustment has been conducted through three stages, the first stage was analysis of correlation among exchange rates variability (proxied by REER and NEER) and exchange rate regimes classification. The second step was estimating the relationship that the former was mentioned with VAR as benchmark model. The third step was applying the nonlinear estimation using Threshold VAR with two different threshold variables. Namely REER and RR Classification which formed by Reinhart and Rogoff . The results of analysis showed that exchange rate regime classification may capture actual exchange rate variability, which of 0.71 correlation value. Flexibility exchange rate can accelerate current account adjustment in Indonesia if 1) the changes of Indonesia exchange rate less than 27.7059 whereas in high regime exchange rate is persistently increasing so that the system between exchange rate and current account becomes unstable. 2) Indonesia is applying exchange rate regime with code 3 – 6 from RR classification or exchange rate classification that categorized in intermediate regime or flexible regime. Bank Indonesia as monetary authorities must keep the changes of exchange rate less than 27.7059, due to exchange rate can affect current account adjustment, so can anticipate if there is current account deficit in Indonesia economy.