Model Pengembangan Wilayah Berkelanjutan Di Selat Sebuku, Kabupaten Kotabaru, Kalimantan Selatan
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The area of Sebuku Strait has productive coastal resources, either renewable and non-renewable resources or environmental services. This research aims to predict the total economy value of coastal resources, analyze the trade-off interaction of stakeholders in the management of coastal resources to be optimal in the Strait Sebuku. This research aims to find out the status of sustainability index of Sebuku Strait. This research aims to a dynamic model of sustainable regional development at Sebuku Strait area. The methods used at economy valuation at Sebuku Strait includes: productivity approach, benefit transfer, contingent valuation method (CVM) and traffic cost method (TCM). In this research, game theory approach was used in cooperative game using pareto optimum basis. Sustainability analysis on Sebuku Strait area is using Multi Dimentional Scalling (MDS) method adopted from Rapfish (Rapid Appraisal of Fisheries) or in this research it is called Rap-Sebuku. The method used is Dynamic System Method using tool powersim constructor 2.5. The result of this research indicated that total economic value (NET) Sebuku Strait amount of Rp. 1.708.910.394.788 that consist of economy use value of mangrove forest ecosystem Rp. 540.906.453.028, coral reef ecosystem of Rp. 14.857.423.616, Sebuku Strait waters of Rp. 3.299.852.400, beach area of Rp. 71.558.003.822 and coal mining area of 1.078.459.655.919. Based on the research result, it was found that strategies for optimum resources management were: 1) Government and Private Sector; government should have limited access with private sector acts in sustainable way. The government through limited access strategy will gain pay off of 1.271.382.286.300; whereas, private sector through sustainable strategy will gain pay off of Rp. 1.446.137.883.052; 2) Government and Fisherman; government should have limited access with fisherman act in sustainable way. The biggest pay off for each player was gained from limited access strategy implemented by government of 632.579.184.900 and sustainable strategy implemented by fisherman of 659.992.193.290; 3) Private Sector and Fisherman; fisherman and private sector should cooperate in resources management that will gain income of Rp. 945.582.505.287 per year for private sector and Rp. 83.413.897.290 per year for fisherman. Rap-Sebuku is a sustainability estimation technique on five dimensions with attributes that are easy to be valuated based on time and cost consideration and applied in various multidiscipline valuation aspects. Indicators representing sustainable regional development consist of four dimensions: ecology, economy, institutional social and technology. Result of valuation on the weight of interest level for every dimension on the performance of Sebuku Strait area shows that the weight of each dimensions are as follow: 50.70 for ecological dimension, 50.59 for economic dimension, 52.74 for institutional social dimension and 51.95 for technology dimension. Based on the weight of five dimensions of regional development at Sebuku Strait in average their value index is in 51.50. It means that Sebuku Strait index is in status of fairly sustainable based on the sustainability scale of 0-100. Based on the existing condition, Sebuku Strait area is fairly sustainable with seventeen sensitive attributes having influence on sustainability index value. To enhance the status in the future, a comprehensive improvement should be conducted on sensitive attributes. The sustainability is expected to follow the type of condition and trend indicators describing linier tendency of resource development to the optimum limit. Result of research simulation shows that the condition of existing population that continue to increase up to 740,245 people will have strong influence on economic activities of fishery and tourism. Fishery production in 2013 is 3,512.44 ton/year and continues to increase to 4,500 ton/year in 2023; however, after 2023, the production will decrease. On the other hand, in tourism sector, the number of tourist in 2013 is 15,300 tourists and it increases to 1.3 million people in 2045. The scenario of mining activity at Sebuku Strait will influence fishery activities. Fish production in 2013 of 1,967 will continue to increase to 3,528 ton/year in 2029; however, it decreases after 2029 to 1,084 ton/year. Scenario of coal mining exploitation amounted to 445.1 million tons and the addition of fishing ground to Makasar Strait or Java Sea results in fish production of 4,109.55 ton/year and continues to increase until 2023 of 5,325.07 ton/year; however it continues to decrease to 349.62 ton/year after 2023. The addition of fishing ground for the fisherman is in accordance to spatial plans (RTRW) of Kotabaru Regency 2012/2032. Development of Sebuku Strait region under consideration the results of the economic valuation, to trade off analysis and analysis of sustainability is built in a dynamic model obtained the best scenario, that scenario 3 (three). Scenario 3 (three) through utilization of fisheries, marine tourism and 445.1 million tonnes of coal mines is a scenario that has the greatest potential contribution to public revenue, revenue (PAD) and GDP, with regard to social and environmental aspects.